@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy Trump was the 1st presidential candidate in history to run a pure base mobilization campaign. At any other point in history, his candidacy would have been a disaster (of course, at any other point in history, his candidacy would never have occurred, the Trump nomination is 100%
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy conditioned on hyperpartisanship and polarization. But assuming he could be the nominee, Trump's issues (the ones he emphasized especially) and his rhetoric was a strategy that literally threw its middle finger up at persuasion strategy. Keep in mind, when Lester Holt asked him,
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy during 1 of the 3 presidential debates, a MAJOR event watched by millions and millions of people, whether he wanted to walk back the Obama was a Muslim stuff, Trump replied curtly "Nope." That is NOT how you appeal to Indies. Nevertheless, pure indies broke in favor of Trump.
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy The did this despite Trump's base-centric campaign. And technically speaking, winning the vote of these Indies, THAT's the thing that carried him to the W (other than the protest balloting and low turnout on the other side). So why would he win "persuasion" voters over HRC? I
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy argue that these pure Is swing in a predicatable way against the status quo- and Trump was not the status quo in 2016.
Of course, he will be in 2020.
But don't mistake the fact that he won this group with the strategy. There was little persuasion in the 2016 Trump effort
Of course, he will be in 2020.
But don't mistake the fact that he won this group with the strategy. There was little persuasion in the 2016 Trump effort
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy and there will be little persuasion in their 2020 effort too. In fact, I believe Parscale knows the pure Is are going to break against them this time, and his path to the W is in electorate expansion. They are trying to use social media to identify people who could be turned
@horsesmaybite @AsInMarx @davidshor @EricLevitz @MishaTeplitskiy into new Trump voters: IE non-college educated white working class voters, but also blue collar latinos. And its a bold, expensive plan. But its their only path. So they are trying it. And it is not altogether a bad plan. It is essentially what the Ds should be doing too.
