Last week was big.
This week will probably be bigger.
This is where we are at:
If the Government tries to put Meaningful Vote 4 to MPs, they'll be (almost certainly) prevented from doing so by Speaker John Bercow.
Cue row between the Government and Speaker.
1/
This week will probably be bigger.
This is where we are at:
If the Government tries to put Meaningful Vote 4 to MPs, they'll be (almost certainly) prevented from doing so by Speaker John Bercow.
Cue row between the Government and Speaker.
1/
Then Tuesday.
Government brings forward Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. Or WAB, the legislation underpinning our exit from the EU.
Opposition MPs need to find agreement. Key alliances need to be formed between (enough) Tory independents and Labour frontbench.
Government brings forward Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. Or WAB, the legislation underpinning our exit from the EU.
Opposition MPs need to find agreement. Key alliances need to be formed between (enough) Tory independents and Labour frontbench.
Keir Starmer said there'll be an amendment for a second referendum.
Rudd telling Sky he just wanted to close Benn Act loophole is good news for the Government.
Justine Greening (also Sky) saying she will vote for a second referendum is bad news for the Government.
3/
Rudd telling Sky he just wanted to close Benn Act loophole is good news for the Government.
Justine Greening (also Sky) saying she will vote for a second referendum is bad news for the Government.
3/
Watch out for a customs union amendment too. I think there is an interplay with the second referendum amendment but I might be in a minority at the moment.
In other words, a referendum on PM's deal then remain loses.
A referendum on a soft Brexit and remain wins.
4/
In other words, a referendum on PM's deal then remain loses.
A referendum on a soft Brexit and remain wins.
4/
Government needs to pass the legislation before the European Council meets (probably early next week).
To do that, enough Tory independents and Labour leavers (like Gareth Snell, who would potentially have backed the deal) who backed Letwin need to vote down the amendments.
To do that, enough Tory independents and Labour leavers (like Gareth Snell, who would potentially have backed the deal) who backed Letwin need to vote down the amendments.
If this happens, WAB passes through Parliament and we leave with a deal on October 31st.
But again watch out for the Speaker.
Big question about whether he will allow MV4 to be the second reading vote tomorrow.
But again watch out for the Speaker.
Big question about whether he will allow MV4 to be the second reading vote tomorrow.
This would of course be Meaningful Vote 5.
