Thread by @theousherwood

Amid warnings from senior Labour figures about the perils of a General Election, understand Jeremy Corbyn could feasibly back a referendum first, and then an election.

But LOTO very unsure about how this could be achieved.

These are the possible options, and blockers.

The first option is that the delay goes through until January 31st. (Possibly longer because a 2nd ref would take longer to implement than an election.

That referendum would have to be on May's deal, not on a Labour deal because Corbyn wouldn't have the chance to negotiate it.

The numbers are probably there in the Commons. But it's very difficult to see how Labour could vote to hold a referendum on May's deal, albeit with promised changes to the political declaration.

It would of course rely on taking control of Government time in the House of Commons to pass legislation.

It would also mean Labour voting for the Government's Queen's Speech, otherwise the government will fall.

The main advantage of this scenario is that it doesn't rely on Corbyn becoming PM, which independent Tories and Lib Dems have said they will not allow.

There is of course the risk that in the subsequent election Boris Johnson campaigns on a platform to trigger Article 50 again if he wins and leave without a deal, or the same proposal that he has just squared with the DUP and the ERG, but is unacceptable to the EU.

And then there is Corbyn's second option. He persuades the Lib Dems and indepedent Tories to get behind him as a caretaker PM and allow him to negotiate a deal, which is then put to a second referendum.

Not going to happen.

Of course, Jeremy Corbyn could step aside. And allow somebody else - a Margaret Beckett-type figure - to become PM and legislate for a second referendum.

Again, not going to happen.

In short, the idea of a second referendum before an election is almost impossible to envisage becoming a reality at the moment.