Thread by @KillBrexitNow

@StevePeers @davidallengreen @JolyonMaugham @pmdfoster @eucopresident
Hypothesis: @BorisJohnson (and/or Dominic Cummings) is still aiming for a 31st October UKExit ("Brexit").

Here's how it could (arguably) be achieved (if other players act stupidly).

BJ's latest proposal is reportedly for UK Govt. effectively to go on strike if House of Commons doesn't agree to 12th December General Election.

Consideration of EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill is also to be paused (indefinitely?) if HoC doesn't agree on Monday to General Election.

@UKLabour @theSNP would be stupid to agree on Monday to a General Election, not least given the ongoing risk of deferred "No Deal" UKExit - the Transition Trap in the Withdrawal Agreement.

However, refusal of GE leaves WAB paused and no GE. So (simplistically) ongoing UK chaos.

Macron is making noises about making extension of Article 50(3) TEU negotiating period conditional on it having a purpose.

Von der Leyen wants BJ to nominate a UK Commissioner if Article 50(3) extension is to be given.

If Macron and/or Von der Leyen/Juncker are stupid enough to make an Article 50(3) TEU extension conditional on e.g. nomination of Commissioner, GE or Referendum then BJ could attempt to achieve 31st October 2019 UKExit.

The EU (Withdrawal) No2 Act 2019 (the "Benn Act") sets out obligations on BJ if EU "agrees" an extension.

See s3 of the 2019 Act:
legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/…

If @EUCouncil offers a conditional extension (e.g. GE / Referendum / Commissioner nomination) has the European Council "agreed" an extension in terms of s3 of the 2019 Act?

It is IMO debatable. If @EUCouncil hasn't "agreed" then (arguably) no obligation on BJ to agree extension.

In a scenario where @EUCouncil has offered conditional extension and @BorisJohnson refuses to e.g. nominate a UK Commissioner what happens?

Who backs down?

Is there to be a "No Deal" UKExit on 31st October?

Has @EUCouncil "agreed" an extension?

Benn Act doesn't explicitly cover scenario of conditional extension (at least arguably).

So BJ hasn't (arguably) breached his legal obligations since s3 of 2019 doesn't apply.

If we get to this point what happens?

I asume that @JolyonMaugham and @joannaccherry will urgently go back to Inner House of Court of Session.

Legal questions:

Has @EUCouncil "agreed" an extension if the offer is conditional?

Does BJ have a legal obligation to accept a conditional offer of extension?

Has @BorisJohnson "frustrated" the purpose of the Benn Act?

Can Court of Session empower someone e.g. John Bercow to agree any conditional Article 50(3) extension on behalf of UK?

Will UK appear to have left EU on 31st October before the legal questions are definitively resolved?

Is Cummings mad enough to attempt this?

We may not get to this situation but BJ's demand to HoC on Monday for GE and pausing of the WAB make this scenario possible IMO.

@JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry I suggest you keep an eye open for Cummings/BJ to attempt this.

@StevePeers @davidallengreen @JolyonMaugham @pmdfoster @eucopresident @BorisJohnson @threadreaderapp unroll