, 9 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
@woodstockjag
Would the following scenario **guarantee** a "No Deal" UKExit (assuming @BorisJohnson was sufficiently determined/crazy)?
Remembering that Dominic Cummings is potentially creative/destructive.
@syrpis @ph210147 @jillongovt
Let's assume that @BorisJohnson targets an Election Day of 31st October 2019 and intends to use s2 of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.
As I read s2(7) of the FTPA 2011, it is the Prime Minister who effectively decides the Election Day, assuming that a motion as required in s2(1) and (2) is passed by the House of Commons.
Why would @BorisJohnson have Election Day on 31st October?
He can outflank @Nigel_Farage and be seen to be delivering on his "Do or Die" promise.
The real-life damage of a "No Deal" UKExit can be dismissed as "Project Fear" Part 2.
Any new PM wouldn't be in place until 1st Nov.
If @BorisJohnson succeeds in inducing @jeremycorbyn into helping to pass a motion as per s2(1) and (2) of the FTPA 2011 then @BorisJohnson is in control.
Would Corbyn's opposition to "No Deal" UKExit be outweighed by desire for General Election?
So, if @BorisJohnson can secure an S2(1) motion he can choose an Election Day of 31st October, refuse to request an Article 50 TEU extension (since he is PM) and outflank @TheBrexitPartly by delivering UKExit.
On 31st October @BorisJohnson would maximise his chances of winning a General Election and likely/possibly have a majority to hold power for 5 years.
Is there a fatal flaw in that reasoning? What window would the FTPA 2011 motion have to be passed within to make a 31st October Election Day viable?
@woodstockjag
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