In 1993, Vernor Vinge predicted the Singularity would occur before 2030. In 2011, Ray Kurzweil placed it in 2045. In 2016, Masayoshi Son predicted 2047. People nowadays seem more likely to quote 2050.
The common point among these predictions: they're always 30-35 years away.
The common point among these predictions: they're always 30-35 years away.
Why this number? 20 years would be too close and too relatable -- you may have personal 20-years career plans or get-the-kids-through-college plans. 50 years would be too distant and irrelevant -- you'd be very old, perhaps dead.
But 30-35 hits the midpoint between the two.
But 30-35 hits the midpoint between the two.
My own Singularity prediction: I predict that in 2030, futurists will be forecasting the Singularity for 2060-2065.
