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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
While I've no doubt that flight capital outflows were high this years (as evidenced mainly by the record outflows on the "Net errors and omissions" account, as I discussed in a September 30 tweet) I strongly disagree that these outflows...
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
@SCMPNews ...are what caused the RMB to weaken. The RMB's exchange rate is determined by the PBoC, not by market pressures, and the PBoC still has more than enough reserves to manage the currency. The PBoC won't devalue the RMB in response to outflows because weakness in the RMB more...
@SCMPNews ...likely to increase outflows rather than reduce them. What is more, RMB devaluations tended to reflect stages in the trade negotiations, suggesting that they have more to do with signaling than with market pressures.
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
According to this very intelligent piece, “China is at a crossroads, and its real and sustainable growth depends on Beijing’s determination to solve the two most critical…issues – to revive its stalled market reform…and to further open...
scmp.com/week-asia/opin… via @scmpnews
@SCMPNews ...up its markets to all investors by scrapping state monopolies.” While I agree with much of this article, I disagree with this conclusion, which sounds a little too much like the recommendations the World Bank always makes for every country.
While it may be true that in...
@SCMPNews ...the longer term these kinds of institutional reforms will allow Chinese businesses and workers to behave more productively, I would argue that over the next 5-7 years they will have little to no positive impact on sustaining growth and may even be dangerous. The only way...
Read 6 tweets
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
Yes, this is another good piece by He Wei. By coincidence in today’s Sunday seminar at my home (in which He Wei used to be a regular participant), one of the students gave a presentation which showed that net recorded debt issuance by local government soared more than 8 times...
...between 2012 and 2016, before dropping by roughly a third in 2017 and stabilizing there. Clearly 2015-16 was a frightening period for Beijing when it comes to debt, and it marked the beginning of a much more serious attempt to get credit growth under control (although they...
...are far from having managed it). It is also when reported GDP growth dropped solidly below 7% for the first time since 1990.
By the way, for what it’s worth, I had been calling for an “L-shaped adjustment” (beginning once Beijing managed to get debt under control) long...
Read 4 tweets
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
Contrary to what many believe in China (and abroad), the Plaza Accord was not “a major cause of Japan’s asset bubble in the late 1980s and the following lost decades of economic stagnation.” It was Japan’s structurally high savings rate...
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
@SCMPNews ...even before the accord, which set off the monetary expansion that was the counterpart of Japan’s large trade surplus.
Yen appreciation should have resolved this, but the problem was compounded after the Plaza Accord when Tokyo countered yen appreciation by lowering...
@SCMPNews ...interest rates and expanding credit. This only served to transfer income from ordinary households, and so raise savings even further, creating an even bigger surplus and setting off the final, most violent stage of Japan’s asset bubble – along with soaring debt and a...
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
this is a relatively straightforward BoP question --

a) there is a bit of capital flight embedded in the current account (the overstated tourism balance)
b) errors and omissions (hot money, flight capital has been roughly equal to the surplus in the basic balance since 14)

1/x
I have written about this in the past, but in the context of explaining why the equilibrium level of intervention by China has fallen (e.g. reserve growth no longer tracks the current account surplus)

(2/x)

cfr.org/blog/why-hasnt…
in the preceding chart I subtracted errors from the basic balance, and compared it to my measure of the buildup of official assets -- the difference is recorded private capital flows (in and out) -- e.g. there was a modest net private inflow in 18

(3/x)
Read 8 tweets
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Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
Net debt/EBITDA of the companies in the Russell 3000 index has never been this high for what is still a good economy. One should expect that net debt/EBITDA would increase in a recession, as it has in the past - a function of weaker denominator. fpa.com/docs/default-s…
Over the past decade, investment grade debt has doubled, but the BBB tranche has nearly quadrupled – from $896 billion to almost $3.2 trillion! BBB-rated debt has never been so large, neither on a percentage basis nor in dollar terms.
Given the huge size of the BBB market, downgrades could incite a large volume of selling that could then infiltrate the rest of the market and quite possibly exacerbate the negative price action.
Read 3 tweets
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KRS | கரச
@kryes
ஏன்.. இது போன்ற தருணங்களில்,
*பெண்ணின் இதழ்கள் மட்டும் விரிந்து திறந்து கொள்கின்றன?
*ஆணின் இதழ்கள் சற்று மூடியே கொள்கின்றன? #Doubt:))
சரி.. நம்மூரு பசங்க= சொங்கி..
என்று அசலூருக்குப் போய்ப் பார்த்தாலும்,
அங்கேயும் இதே கதை, இதே கதி தான்!🤣

முத்தம் எ. கலைக்கு..
முதலில் தருவதை விடுங்கள்..
முதலில் "ஆயத்தம்" ஆவது= பெண்ணா? ஆணா? #Doubt
இதுல என்னமோ Biology இருக்கு டோய்!

ஆண்-பெண் முத்தம் தான் அப்படி இன்று பார்த்தால்..
ஆண்-ஆண்/ பெண்-பெண் முத்தங்களும் அவ்வண்ணமே உள்ளன!🤣

*ஆண்= குவிப்பு
*பெண்= விரிப்பு
இது என்ன உளவியல்? அறிஞர்கள் தரவுடன் உரைத்தால் நலம்! நன்றி!
Read 8 tweets
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KRS | கரச
@kryes
ஓர் ஐயம்!

அறிந்தவர்கள்/ பொறுப்பில் உள்ளோர் தெளிவிக்க!

கலைஞர் நினைவிடம் மட்டும் ஏன் கடலைப் பார்த்தவாறு இருக்கிறது?
படமும் எதிர் புறத்தில் தான் அமைத்துள்ளார்கள்! ஏன்?

அறிஞர் அண்ணா உள்ளிட்ட பலர் நினைவிடங்களும் நிலம் பார்க்க..
கலைஞர் நினைவிடம் மட்டும் கடல் பார்க்கக் காரணம் என்ன?
மீண்டும் விளக்குகிறேன்!

கலைஞர் நினைவிடம் என்றது
'கல்லறை'யின் திசையை!
'படத்தின்' திசையை அல்ல!

படம் தெற்கு பார்த்தவாறு!
ஆனால் கல்லறை (உடல்) எத்திசை பார்த்தவாறு? #Doubt

ஏனிக் கேள்வியென்றால்,
அறிஞர் அண்ணாவின் கல்லறை (உடல்) தெற்கு பார்த்தவாறே கிடத்தப்பட்டது! கலைஞருக்கு மாற்றம் ஏன்?
அறிஞர் அண்ணாவின் உடல்,
தென்புலம் நோக்கிக் கிடத்தப்பட்டது! குறள்மொழியாக!

'தென்புலத்தார்', தெய்வம், விருந்து, ஒக்கல், தான் - என்றாங்கு
ஐம்புலத்து ஆறோம்பல் தலை!

"தென்புலம்" என்பது தமிழ் மரபில், மிக நுணுக்கமான பொருள்! இயற்கைப் பொருள்! அறிவீர்களா?
Read 4 tweets
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Sibel Edmonds
@sibeledmonds
Since I declared today “Fun” #Tweet Day (A rarity for me: almost always serious & a nerd in public), Here’s a secret: My obsession with food goes beyond “eating” I love to cook- In addition to all the mambo jumbo multiple univ degrees I am a trained chef obsessed with food ...
By the way: Anyone who wants to attack this from the “feminist” point of view can go to ####. Those are the misguided (brainwashed, used & utilized by #DeepState for half a century) ignoramus who know zero about true Women Empowerment. I am a proud chef/cook and loving it!!!
Let me clarify 1 more thing: I know tons of desperate people who hunt 4 mates on social media- I ain’t mentioning my cooking skills or other non-feminist side to score in that department. Here’s Another secret on this: Been married (same man) for 27 years;nowadays that’s Record!
Read 4 tweets
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KRS | கரச
@kryes
ஒரு வேண்டுகோள்:

*தமிழ்நாட்டின் பிற எந்த முதலமைச்சரை விடவும் (அறிஞர் அண்ணா உட்பட)
*ஐயன் வள்ளுவனை 'மிகப் பரவல்' செய்த முதலமைச்சர்= கலைஞர் கருணாநிதியே!

ஆனால் அதற்காக.. "கலைஞர் இல்லையென்றால்
வள்ளுவர் பிரபலம் ஆகியிருக்க மாட்டார்" எ. பேசிவிடாதீர்கள்!

அது கலைஞருக்குத் தான் இழுக்கு:(
கலைஞர் கருணாநிதிக்கு முன்னும் பின்னும்..
ஐயன் வள்ளுவனை
பலரும் மக்களிடம் கொண்டு சென்றுள்ளார்கள்!

*பழைய தமிழகக் காங்கிரஸ்
*கம்யூனிச இயக்கங்கள்
*திராவிட இயக்கம்
*இயக்கம் சாராத் தமிழறிஞர்கள்

அதில், "பெரும் பங்கு" திராவிட இயக்கம்!
திராவிட இயக்கத்திலும், பெரும்பங்கு= கலைஞர்; அவ்வளவே!
Sometimes, the Defender becomes the Worst Offender of a Cause!:(

பேசத் தெரியாமல் பேசி..
* வள்ளுவருக்காக, உண்மையாகவே மிக அதிகம் உழைத்த கலைஞர் கருணாநிதி மேல்
* "துதி தூசு" படரச் செய்வதால், எந்தவொரு பயனும் இல்லை! எ. உணர்க!

மாறாக.. "கலைஞரின் வள்ளுவ முன்னெடுப்புக்கள்" பட்டியல் இடுக!
Read 16 tweets

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