Yes, this is another good piece by He Wei. By coincidence in today’s Sunday seminar at my home (in which He Wei used to be a regular participant), one of the students gave a presentation which showed that net recorded debt issuance by local government soared more than 8 times...
...between 2012 and 2016, before dropping by roughly a third in 2017 and stabilizing there. Clearly 2015-16 was a frightening period for Beijing when it comes to debt, and it marked the beginning of a much more serious attempt to get credit growth under control (although they...
...are far from having managed it). It is also when reported GDP growth dropped solidly below 7% for the first time since 1990.
By the way, for what it’s worth, I had been calling for an “L-shaped adjustment” (beginning once Beijing managed to get debt under control) long...
By the way, for what it’s worth, I had been calling for an “L-shaped adjustment” (beginning once Beijing managed to get debt under control) long...
...before the May 2016 article in People’s Daily, although I suspect my expectations involve a much lower bottom and a much longer adjustment period than that of the People’s Daily’s “authoritative source”.
