, 10 tweets, 5 min read
If you're watching the #CA25 race, here are a couple very real possibilities, with gifs. 1/10
Rumor is the special election will be May 5th or 12th. Either would mean that the primary would be concurrent with the Presidential primary election on March 3. This election would be over 50% Dem because of the Presidential Primary electorate.

But a May Runoff? Ouch. 2/10
Whichever Dem makes the runoff will be forced into a unless they win a 50% outright victory in March. This most likely scenario is that a Dem and a Rep march toward a low-turnout election in a swing district. 3/10
Republicans would likely be favored to take the seat back given how anemic Dem turnout has been in past similar stand-alone special elections in seats like this.

But that wouldn't be the end. 4/10
Remember, this is the election for the unexpired remainder of the @KatieHill4CA seat. There will be a CONCURRENT election for the full seat. Yes, the candidates will file for, and run in, two elections on the SAME ballot. At the same time. 5/10
So, now, you have a Republican maybe win the seat in May, but the winning candidate in the March Primary for the full term will still be on the ballot in November for the Full seat. The Democrat would likely be favored in that Presidential Election electorate. 6/10
If the Democrats won that seat in November, the Republican who won in May would only be fulfilling the remaining unexpired @KatieHill4CA term and nothing else. Basically, a 7 month congressional term. 7/10
But, here's the real opportunity to be thrown for a loop. See voters in these contest where the candidates are listed on the same ballot twice can get confused. Maybe they think they can't vote for the same person twice. Then things get goofy. 8/10
In Senate District 32 last election cycle, there was this same situation, and the voters actually picked one Dem for the contest to complete the unexpired term, and another one to serve in the whole term. And campaign consultants, observers, media... nobody really knows why. 9/10
Here's the actual results. Check out how Delgado takes second in a crowded field to get to take on the Rep (and be extremely favored) in the Special Primary, but in the next pic you see that the full term seat Bob Archuleta got the second spot. Elections Be Crazy! 10/10
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