Thread by @jonworth

OK

I can delay no more

I need to make #BrexitDiagram Series 4 - about what happens now the General Election is called

The essence of the diagram is going to be this: to plot various General Election outcomes through to various Brexit outcomes

Before I try to diagram this, I need to work out the GE outcomes that would then possibly deliver different Brexit outcomes

First - the easiest one - is what happens if the Tories get a majority

As the Tories are purging their soft/anti-Brexit/anti-No Deal wing, I expect the Tories to be more unified and more pro-Hard Brexit after the GE

Hence any outcome where the Tories get 326 seats or more (a majority of 10 once Sinn Fein and Speaker are excluded) pretty surely leads to the current Withdrawal Agreement Bill being approved and Brexit by 31 January

On the other side - if opposition parties win - it is more complicated

My assumption is Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens would find an arrangement to tolerate a minority administration

The problem here would be what the DUP do

They strongly dislike Johnson's Deal, but they also fiercely dislike Corbyn

Plus any alliance of opposition parties would be more fractious than a Tory-only administration, and not all Labour MPs are fully bought into the idea of a 2nd referendum

So I think that Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid Cymru+Green would need to have 336 seats or more between them

Recap:
>326 MPs for Tories - get Johnson's Brexit Deal
>336 MPs for Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid Cymru+Green - get a 2nd Referendum

🚨 The Problem 🚨
Something in between - you get a mess!

🚨 The #BrexitDiagram Problem 🚨
How can I even work out, with any degree of reliability what the combined chances of those outcomes are?

But anyway, that's my current thinking for the next series of diagrams...

/ends