, 9 tweets, 3 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
A lot of people casually throw out there "All the Republicans are re-registering Independent." So we looked. 1/4
With over 40,000 surveys completed in 2016 Primary we can see that there was a good amount of re-registration, and, yes, of the 12,749 Republicans, 300 became Democrats and 830 became Independent/Other. That's a 91.4% retention rate for Republicans, or about 9% switching. 2/4
But, among Democrats we also saw among the 20,792 surveyed in the 2016 Primary, 1,302 became Ind/Other and 243 became Republicans. That's a 92.6% retention, or 7.5% switching. 3/4
So, in summary, not that many voters are re-registering to switch parties. A 9% here and 7.5% there isn't a massive realignment. The shifting in partisanship isn't from voters who are changing parties, it is from the dramatic change in partisan registrations among new voters. 4/4
Bonus: Not any difference by Gender....
Bonus #2 - a bit more leaky among younger voters.
Bonus #3 - no African Americans are switching from Dem to Rep. But 93% of Rep Latinos aren't switching.
Bonus #4 - Only 76% of the Republican John Kasich voters are still Republicans. That's actually the biggest shift we can find.
Bonus #5 - income doesn't seem to matter.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with CA120

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!