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1/ in a recent thread I noted US ambassador Pyatt's Sept 2015 speech. @HansMahncke pointed out that Pyatt as NOT then demanding Shokin resignation and that something changed prior to Biden demand. Can this be pinpointed?
@HansMahncke 2/ a chronology problem for this exercise arises almost immediately, since it doesn't seem possible to match events related to Shokin's removal to dates in which Biden was in Ukraine.
@HansMahncke 3/ Shokin was reported to have resigned on Feb 16, 2016, but then seems to have resiled and was finally forced out on March 30, 2016. Rather than there being a single CornPop moment corresponding to Biden's six hours, it seems to have been by instalment in Feb-Mar 2016.
@HansMahncke 4/ be that as it may, there had been a sea change in US attitudes towards Shokin between Sep 25, 2015 and Feb 16, 2016. Biden's position is that Shokin's firing was over "concerns about corruption and ineptitude", "widely shared by Western allies".
@HansMahncke 5/ Giuliani, on the other hand, pointed out that Shokin lived in simple circumstances in Ukraine, the exact opposite of the lavish lifestyle of Zlochevsky, who was Hunter Biden's patron and employer of Democrat fixers Tramontano, Painter, Burretta, Leiter.
@HansMahncke 6/ I've looked thru date-limited social media between Sep 2015 and Feb 2016 to try to more exactly delimit when Shokin became persona non grata to the US viceroys in Ukraine. It's an interesting exercise and still in progress.
@HansMahncke 7/ a couple of weeks after Pyatt's excoriating Sep speech, Shokin met with Pyatt ukrinform.net/rubric-crime/1… . Shokin invited US assistance on a controversial case and Pyatt "expressed his readiness to work with the Prosecutor General"
@HansMahncke 8/ during his six months of tenure as Prosecutor General, Shokin had overseen the establishment of an anti-corruption bureau (NABU) as requested by US/West. A director (Sytnyk) had been appointed in April, offices set up in May, investigative staff hired in August. He had also
@HansMahncke 9/ established a committee for appointment of a Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor (as requested) with appointment announced in November (Kholodnitsky).
@HansMahncke 10/ after US-initiated regime change in Feb 2014, Shokin had been called out of retirement by new government to assist in reforming Prosecutors' office, initially as a Deputy Prosecutor General, then appointed as Prosecutor General in Feb 2015.
@HansMahncke 11/ to put this in perspective (and I don't wish to over-press coparison), Bill Barr was also a retired former official called out of retirement to reform a DOJ. Tensions inevitably arose between Barr and (for example) Andrew Weissman. Tensions also arose between Shokin and
@HansMahncke 12/ several ambitious younger Ukrainian prosecutors, especially Kasko, Sytnyk (who had been appointed head of NABU) and Sakveralidze, who had been imported from Biden's Georgia posse as a Deputy PG. I don't pretend to be able to sort out the rights or wrongs of subsequent
@HansMahncke 13/ quarrels between Shokin and younger prosecutors. At a distance, it's impossible to sort out. I only observe that such quarrels arise when ambitious people are involved and, as shown below, US viceroys early on took side of prosecutors who were Weissman's age,not Barr's age
@HansMahncke 14/ as preview, influential Atlantic Council demanded a Robespierrian gutting of entire Ukrainian justice system, including the dismissal ("lustration") of all 10,000 judges.
After all, /sarc lustration of Saddam's army had worked out really well /sarc

@HansMahncke 15/ more later
@HansMahncke 16/ on Nov 30, 2015, Shokin announced appointment of Kholodnitsky as anti-corruption prosecutor. Ambassador Pyatt praised appointment as "historic opportunity" No demonization of Shokin in Pyatt's tweets during this interval.
@HansMahncke 17/ while IMF appears in 2016 as one of Biden's "western allies" in opposition to Shokin, there are ZERO mentions of IMF and Shokin together in calendar 2015
@HansMahncke 18/ on Dec 2, 2015, Melinda Haring wrote Atlantic Council article
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea… praising Ukraine's progress against corruption, specifically praising appointment of Kholodnitsky as special anti-corruption prosecutor (from process supervised by Shokin)
@HansMahncke 19/ on Dec 8-10, Biden made his 4th visit to Ukraine, including a speech to Ukraine parliament (Rada).
storify.com/USEmbassyKyiv/ .
No public mention of Shokin.
@HansMahncke 20/ meanwhile, on Dec 9, NYT published a damning story entitled "Joe Biden, His Son and the Case Against a Ukrainian Oligarch" which contained surprisingly pointed criticisms
@HansMahncke 21/ prior to NYT article, ANTAC had never mentioned Shokin in a tweet twitter.com/search?q=shoki…. But on Dec 25, 2015, ANTAC announced that one of their major goals was to "force Shokin to resign"
@HansMahncke 22/ but as of Jan 6, 2016, ambassador Pyatt looked back with satisfaction on 2015 as a "year of real reforms".
. Pyatt stated in 2015 (while Shokin Prosecutor General) that Ukraine "passed more reform legislation than in all the years prior".
@HansMahncke 23/ but on Jan 22, 2016, Sergiy Leshchenko (later identified by Nellie Ohr as a supposed Fusion GPS source and, for sure, close ally of Nuland and McCain)
reported that Davos conference was told that it was "shocking" that Shokin still in office
@HansMahncke 24/ a Dec 22, 2015 German-language article de.euromaidanpress.com/2015/12/22/ein… by Leshchenko appears to provide an important clue.
@HansMahncke 25/ Biden's public remarks in his Ukraine visit had criticized corruption, he didn't name names. Leshchenko reported that his private conversations with president Poroshenko and PM Yatseniuk were very pointed. These private conversations were on same day as NYT named Hunter Biden
@HansMahncke 26/ Leshchenko reported that he had visited Washington in the week prior (~Dec 3) to Biden's trip to Ukraine (Dec 9) and that Shokin's very name enraged "everyone" "in the Vice President's office" and the "leading think tanks" (Atlantic Council presumably).
@HansMahncke 27/ Based on his visit to Washington, Leshchenko reported
Shokin's resignation "could turn into a condition (Forderung) for further support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)". Which indeed proved to be the case.
@HansMahncke 28/ Leshchenko also reported that his Washington hosts also wanted a "full restructuring" of the prosecutor's office - this was presumably the "lustration" (dismissal) and replacement of the 10,000 existing prosecutors later demanded by Atlantic Council.
@HansMahncke 29/ on Jan 19, 2016, the three Weissman-age Ukrainian prosecutors (Sytnyk, Kholodnitsky and Sakveralidze) visited US officials in Washington without Shokin. Andriy Telizhenko of Ukr embassy reported that US officials asked Ukrainian prosecutors to dig up dirt on Manafort.
@HansMahncke 30/ Sytnyk subsequently released "Black Ledger" to Leshchenko and others in summer 2016, thereby decapitating Manafort
@HansMahncke 31/ but there's something additionally important about the Jan 19, 2016 meeting: the primary host was ...... Eric Ciaramella, much in the news recently.
@HansMahncke 32/ two days after Ciaramella's meeting with the young prosecutors, it was reported zn.ua/POLITICS/ssha-… that US had tied the $1 billion loan guarantee to removal of Shokin - the demand later recalled by Biden as a sort of Corn Pop moment
@HansMahncke 33/ on Jan 21, Biden met Poroshenko in Davos.
@HansMahncke 34/ meanwhile, ANTAC continued to campaign for Shokin's removal, tagging ambassador Pyatt
@HansMahncke 35/ more tomorrow.

But reviewing a key point: first formal linkage of Shokin removal to IMF tranche (later subject of Biden boast) appears to be at Jan 19, 2016 meeting hosted by "Whistleblower" Eric #Ciaramella i.e. he was himself involved in Biden's original quid pro quo
@HansMahncke 36/ but regardless of whether Ciaramella is or is not whistleblower, he was host to Jan 19, 2016 meeting at which Biden quid pro quo was explained to Ukrainian prosecutors and important witness on that basis alone. In addition, Ciaramella was probably
@HansMahncke 37/ probably one of the officials who Leshchenko met in his trip to Washington in early December 2015, at which demands for Shokin removal appear to have been first articulated. Any proper investigation of Hunter Biden incident needs to identify and interview these officials.
@HansMahncke 38/ before I forget, according to White House Visitor Logs, Leshchenko attended meeting on Dec 1, 2015 hosted by Biden factotum Mike Carpenter. Also attending were Anatolii Pinchuk and Mykola Hryckowian. (Non-visitor attendees e.g. Ciaramella do not appear on these logs.)
@HansMahncke 39/ some biographic information on Anatolii Pinchuk of NGO "Ukrainian Strategy" ukrstrategy.org/en/biography.h… and Mykola Hryckowian of Center for US-Ukrainian Relations, Washington DC Office
@HansMahncke 40/ in Nov 10, 2019 NYT archive.is/YeBQh, Thrush and Vogel assert that "Biden was just one of many officials calling for Shokin to go". He cited IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Nuland and Senate Republicans. However, his key citations either AFTER Jan 19 or vague
@HansMahncke 41/ Thrush and Vogel hyperlink to Senate Republicans was to Feb 12, 2016 article portman.senate.gov/newsroom/press… that, in any event, didn’t mention Shokin, let alone call for him to go.
@HansMahncke 42/ Lagarde statement imf.org/en/News/Articl… came on Feb 10 (also well AFTER Jan 19 meeting) and mentioned corruption in general terms, without mentioning Shokin or demanding his resignation
@HansMahncke 43/ on Oct 8, 2015 Nuland, testifying to Senate cmte foreign.senate.gov/download/nulan…, had similar line to Pyatt Sep speech: that "Prosecutor General's Office ... must investigate and successfully prosecute corruption and asset recovery cases - including locking up dirty personnel in PGO"
@HansMahncke 44/ Nuland's remarks were covered in Ukraine theinsider.ua/politics/56176… and, as reported, did not contain any linkage of withholding IMF funds to extort Shokin resignation - the quid pro quo that Biden and his posse later demanded
@HansMahncke 45/ on Oct 10, Kononenko reacted coolly to Nuland's "attempt to dictate personnel positions to an independent state". He noted that "Samopimich faction" had modest response to their campaign against Shokin and that he supported Shokin having chance
@HansMahncke 46/ bottom line re Thrush and Vogel: their citations do NOT refute thesis of this thread: that the linkage of IMF $1 billion to Shokin dismissal (the Biden qui pro quo) originated with Biden and/or his officials in early Dec 2015 as NYT was about to break Hunter story and was
@HansMahncke 47/ communicated on Jan 19, 2016 to Ukrainian prosecutors in Washington at meeting hosted by "whistleblower" Eric Ciaramella, AFTER which IMF and others fell in line with pressure originating from Biden and his officials.
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