Hate to burst everybody's bubble, but I'm not sure this makes much difference at all.
On current polling, the most important seats are the Labour held marginals, which aren't affected by this announcement.
On current polling, the most important seats are the Labour held marginals, which aren't affected by this announcement.
In fact, I think the number of seats the announcement effects (again, on current polling!) can probably be counted on one hand.
Of course, this WILL likely mitigate against the effects of a potential Labour surge but:
a) We are a long way off that
b) By that point we are already in hung parliament territory
a) We are a long way off that
b) By that point we are already in hung parliament territory
The Brexit party will still be making it more difficult for the Tories to gain seats like:
- Barrow and Furness
- Great Grimsby
- Workington
-Bridgend
- Gower
-Stoke-on-Trent Central
etc.
- Barrow and Furness
- Great Grimsby
- Workington
-Bridgend
- Gower
-Stoke-on-Trent Central
etc.
As people have pointed out, the wider messaging could still have an impact in seats where the Brexit party aren't standing down - although I'm not sure we can say with any accuracy what the impact will be there.
On the one hand, this could act like tacit approval of Boris from Farage, meaning his voters are more comfortable voting Tory.
On the other hand, they may now feel more comfortable voting BP because they feel they can do so without blocking a Tory government.
On the other hand, they may now feel more comfortable voting BP because they feel they can do so without blocking a Tory government.
Something else to consider, this will likely increase the Tory vote share, whilst winning the party very few extra seats.
Counterintuitively, this will therefore means the Tory lead in the polls will need to be LARGER in order to get a majority.
Counterintuitively, this will therefore means the Tory lead in the polls will need to be LARGER in order to get a majority.
(h/t to @benlauderdale for that final point)
