Trump kicks off his speech by offering a bleaker vision of the economy he inherited than most economists would...
Trump blames Fed again for holding back his boom. He also seems to say Fed should be giving the US negative rates to allow it to compete internationally.
That's been a theme for months now. Trump wants Fed to engage in competitive monetary policy. He sees it as an instrument of international economic warfare...
Worth pondering what that would mean for global economy if central banks set policy based on what others are doing rather than domestic situation.
He hails surge in manufacturing jobs during his administration. That's fair. But things have turned in past year. The growth in factory jobs has slowed, particularly in key battleground states.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
No mention so far of trade and China. Which is the news the markets are really hoping to hear.
This is a key point...
Ok,. Here we go on trade... He's talking about "terrible trade deals" that he inherited.
Says the world is a place of "fierce competition" and that US is competing for factories and jobs. Goal is to bring factories to the US. "That's where we want them to stay, and be and move to."
Trump not making any news here. Networks are starting to turn away from him.
Point worth remembering. Always...
Also this:
He has so far spent more time talking about removing regulations than trade. Again, that's not what markets were looking for going into this.
He's now been going for a good five minutes on regulation.
This is a fair point...
This is quite the illustration running with @martinwolf_'s latest @FT column:
ft.com/content/3a7192…
ft.com/content/3a7192…
This is quite the illustration running with @martinwolf_'s latest @FT column:
ft.com/content/3a7192…
ft.com/content/3a7192…
He's now on to the WTO. Trump claims that there has been a turn in judgments for the US since he took office. "We are now winning a lot of cases at the WTO that we would never have thought of winning before."
The last ruling by the WTO involving the US was actually one giving China the right to levy tariffs on $3.6 billion in US exports.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trump now says 10,000 factories want to come to US. It's not clear where he is getting those figures.
"They are all coming back to the United States. They want to be where the action is," he says, of world leaders he meets.
"They are all coming back to the United States. They want to be where the action is," he says, of world leaders he meets.
Ok. We are back to trade. But in general terms. He is repeating long-running line that he wants fair and "reciprocal" trade.
"America will not be taken advantage of anymore."
"America will not be taken advantage of anymore."
He's on the EU. Calls it in many ways "worse than China".
And then he is on to China...
And then he is on to China...
Repeats the line that before he arrived in Washington no one took on China. That's disputable...
"Nobody has cheated better than China. But I won't say that," he jokes. Also repeats line that he doesn't blame China. "I blame our leaders for allowing it to happen."
"Nobody has cheated better than China. But I won't say that," he jokes. Also repeats line that he doesn't blame China. "I blame our leaders for allowing it to happen."
Again, we're not getting any news on China here. Trump is repeating stock lines, including that China is paying cost of tariffs (a line disputed by almost all economists and companies).
"A significant phase one deal could happen, could happen soon," Trump says. But says he will only accept a good deal.
That's not really news. And he's on to South Korea and his administration's renegotiation of the Korea-US trade agreement.
That's not really news. And he's on to South Korea and his administration's renegotiation of the Korea-US trade agreement.
With Japan, Trump says, he struck a "historic" but partial deal. Says there are tough negotiations still going on.
More stock lines on USMCA (the new Nafta) and how Democrats aren't passing it in the House. Again, no news here...
Meanwhile...
Here's some more on the impact of tariffs and the trade wars on important battleground states. Fascinating look at uneven impact of China tariffs on counties in Wisconsin.
Trump wraps up speech here. But, again, we did not get any news here. This has been a trip through Trump's greatest economic hits. "Ladies and Gentlemen the best is yet to come."
Now comes Q&A....
Now comes Q&A....
First question is punchy: Gist of it --> There's a growing consensus that your trade war is hitting the economy. What are you doing about it?
Trump dismisses the idea that uncertainty from his trade war is a drag on investment and therefore the US economy. "There is no uncertainty."
That's actually the most interesting thing he's said today. It's an insight into the denial inside the WH on the economic impact of tariffs and trade wars.
Another question on trade policy and risk. Again, Trump is dodging effectively... Riffing on clean air and water now.
On the election next year... "The truth is you have no choice. Because the people we are running against are crazy."
Comes back to risk. "I don't think there is any risk,'' he says re trade policy presumably. "I think the biggest risk is the election."
And that's the end...
Comes back to risk. "I don't think there is any risk,'' he says re trade policy presumably. "I think the biggest risk is the election."
And that's the end...
