Henrik Zeberg Profile picture
Nov 16, 2019 23 tweets 17 min read Read on X
Good morning! #Equities continue to defy gravity. This has more to do with the insane monetary environment CBs have created. Macro economic reality says something completely different. The division (=the bubble) will come to haunt us all. Please stay tuned for #HZupdates
Why is it, that some analysts try to explain away the obvious? We have a major bubble in ...well almost all assets. #Schiller PE for #SP500 tells us, that the bubble is at 1929-level. Could it grow bigger? Sure!! But that does not make it a non-bubble #HZupdates
Amount of neg. yielding debt has skyrocketed. Remember, this is discount factor. If discount factor is closing in on 0 (or goes neg.) then value of any asset is going to infinity. But that has NOTHING to do with true value of any asset. This is "Bubble food"! #HZupdates
How long will the insanity (because that is, what it is!) carry on? Well - we could pot. see #SP500 rally on to ~3224 or even ~3466. A True Blow-off top - or a Throw-over of the Ending Expanding Diagonal. But - it does not make it a non-bubble. Only a really ugly one! #HZupdates
Macro economic reality is quite different. #Copper tells the full picture. Until 2008, we had inflationary environment. Wave A (2008-09) was sharp deflationary drop. A Bounce (B) followed, before long wave C started to unfold. Still we are to see final wave 5 #HZupdates
This picture tells us, that we will not see inflation from here on. Zooming in on #Copper, we see how it currently settles below trendline (wave 4 bounce). We could see yet another rally, but the outlook is bearish and crash likely. LT-bottom will likely <2008-level #HZupdates
You have analysts telling us #Stagflation is right ahead. Well, you will not have stagflation unless #Oil and #Commodities are about to take off while economy sinks (as Copper predicts). So, next step is to investigate chart of Oil and Commodities. Bullish or Bearish? #HZupdates
#Oil chart has not changed. Still seeing Ending Diagonal, which requires another drop to triangle bottom. LT-target <20. A drop in #Oil is not coincident with #Stagflation. Hence, we are more likely to see a #Deflationary drop before full structure has been played out #HZupdates
However, analysts calling for #Stagflation will eventually be right. This is where we end. However, the deflationary drop is most likely what will come first. But as main driver of deflation MUST be related to #equities, we must likely wait for top here before Deflation unfolds
And with buyers like Swiss National Bank.... what could possible go wrong? Think about it... a CB printing money and buying #equities for the new fresh money! Sure it is all real value, when share price goes up?? No! This is the ultimate CB-bubble #HZupdates
In fact, we can understand why Swiss National bank does this. Why buy neg. yielding bonds? And if you are to loose money on your equity positions - well then you print more money, which only helps weaken the currency (Currency war) and hence stimulate exports...They cannot loose!
The one that looses in this Endgame is the average worker. When deflation finally catches up, he will loose his job as economy sinks. And as CBs push economy into stagflation through new crazy interventions, he will loose further, as purchasing power is eroded during stagflation
This is environment where revolutions are born which topples regimes... I expect #YellowVests movements to spread to many countries around the world before the entire cycle has come to and end. This unfortunately is breading ground for scary political perspectives and nationalism
#CRB gives us same outlook. Lower in deflationary bust - before SECULAR BOTTOM and much higher levels = higher prices on ordinary goods. Bottom is where the "inflation genie" escapes the bottle. That is not now! #HZupdates
CBs seems to think, that they can avoid deflationary bust, if only they print hard enough. This is not how I see it! Structure will play out! The only effect of CBs printing will be, that they build larger bubble which only leads to bigger crash and longer stagflation period
This belief, by CBs, that they can change deflationary/inflationary regime and think they can micro-manage inflation level is absurd and naive. This is the major hubris, for which we will all pay. This is MAIN reason why we have the greatest bubble ever at our hands #HZupdates
So - clearly the only alternative will be #Gold #Silver! YES - it is! But TIMING IS EVERYTHING! And in fact, the coming period of stagflation is a time, where all #commodities will do well. When secular bottom is in for commodities, we will see much higher levels. Here #wheat
So if #Commodities, #Oil, #Copper (and #AUDUSD), etc. will see new lows why then do analysts believe in #Gold Bull from here? Because of Financial Apocalypse ahead. Well yes - but you cannot buy bread with Gold. In fact, you will probably need to sell gold to get USD to buy bread
And with LT Gold chart looking like this - I tell you we have an ugly Gold Bear market ahead - BEFORE Gold rallies to new highs. Remember, I'm the greatest Gold Bull LT of all :) Bottom ~800-890 #HZupdates
So if we pull the charts together.... #Copper down (economy sinks) while #Commodities (bottom sooner than Copper) - and #Gold Bear market... This is the outlook of a Deflationary Bust - a panicking FED - and a long Stagflation period (where Gold explodes higher) #HZupdates
But - back to my initial question.... WHEN?? Well - perhaps at #SP500 ~3234 or 3466. We must continue to look for indications in #Copper, #AUDUSD, etc. Not yet time to be short. Time to be long? I don't know! Perhaps the time to stay in cash? Sometimes 0% return is OK! #HZupdates
That is it for today! We truly live in extraordinary times. I hope the public some day will realize CBs role in this pot. calamity in markets and economy! For now - stay safe! Have a great weekend all! #HZupdates
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More from @HenrikZeberg

Apr 21
Good afternoon everyone!

A thread🧵

In October 2022, everybody was Bearish. Falling over themselves in calling for Recession and major Bear Market.

I was on the other side of that crowd. And it was honestly a fairly easy call looking at the Business Cycles. (Yes - it was!)

Leading Indicators (LEI) had NOT crossed over Equilibrium - and thereby sending Recession Signal. And Coincident Indicators (COI) were well above Equilibrium.

NOT the environment for a Recession and Major Bear Market.

We all know how that went!

Today, we have that same situation. Everybody is all "Beared-Up".

All the experts have their views on why the Economy "already is in Recession" - and the US market decline since December 2024 is first leg in a major Bear Market.

This time it is not an as easy call as back in October 2022 - but it is still fairly easy to point out why this is most likely NOT the situation.

My take: The Economy is NOT in Recession. And we are NOT in the first part of a major Bear Market. In fact, Equities and Crypto will soar higher in the final leg.

Why....?

Because the "Recession and Bear Market Thesis" does not "add up"! And people are not looking!Image
Let's first focus on why we don't have a Recession at this point. This one is the easy part.

And this is despite the RECESSION SIGNAL from the LEADING INDICATORS in December 2024. They are an indication, that the Economy is deteriorating - but it may take 2-4 quarters before the Economy rolls into a Recession.

So for now..

.... if a Recession was unfolding at this point, we should be able to observe that in a range of indicators. A "Recession" is not just something that "just happens out of the Blue".

It requires a serious negative feedback loop in particularly the Labor Market, which makes the Economy run backwards. Negative GDP growth for some time. And that would be visible for the observant analyst.

One thing we always observe in the initial phase of a Recession is that short duration yields drop - and drop fast.

This is US 1 year Yields.

We don't see that kind of drop in the yields, as we would expect, if a Recession was here now. And looking at Momentum (RSI) - then the "collapse" in momentum is not happening - as we have seen at the onset of previous Recessions.

Exhibit A that a Recession is NOT unfolding at this point.Image
Also yield spreads should begin to tell us, that the Economy is running backwards.

This is 10YR - 3Months yields spread.

It has hardly UN-INVERTED - and it has not been steepening into positive territory.

Again a piece of evidence, that the Economy is NOT in Recession at this point.

People saying the opposite are simply guessing!

I still say, that the EXTREME YIELD INVERSION we have seen is telling us, that something bad is coming our way. A major Recession - worst we have seen since 1930s.

But it is not here yet! And it tells us that we still have time to be LONG the market.Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12, 2024
Major #BlowOffTop before #Recession. The Recession will be very severe - and cause the largest Market Crash since the Crash of 1929.

This is my Outlook (January 2024)!

In early 2023, I said that I would be met with doubts and a question of "Why Recession?, as the stock market soared into late 2023 - and continues to do so into 2024.

Now we are here! My doubters are rising (and will continue to do so, as the market strengthens coming months)

The arguments are:

1) "We already had the Recession in '22"

2) "Fed is aware and will not allow it"

3) "Fed has changed the Game"

4) "We are in a new liquidity cycle"

5) "It will not be allowed in a Presidential Election year"

..... and so on!

All chitchat - and based in a complete lack of understanding of the Business Cycles.

So - why Recession? (....this is giving more than I should - so stay tuned😉)Image
First argument is based on our Business Cycle Model developed with Swissblock and @Negentropic_

Our Business Cycle has flashed a Recession signal in 2023. Leading Indicators have crashed under our Equilibrium Line.

In 80 years of data, the Recession Signal from our Model has NEVER been wrong. No false signals - ever!Image
Second argument goes on the Yield Inversion.

Yield inversion is a signal of coming Recession. Not immidiately - but eventually.

Analysts have observed this signal in 2023 - but due to impatience dismissed it. This is a great mistake.

From the bottom of the Yield Inversion, we normally see 12-15 months before a Recessions sets in. The bottom was in June 2023.

This signal is very much alive!Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 15, 2022
On Wednesday, we got a CPI print of 7% over the duration of a year. Fastest since 1982! Surely, everybody can see, that #inflation is here to stay!?

NO!

WHY?

Because of the real gauges of inflation which tells us, that current inflation is due to Supply and Demand issues!
Gold Miners will soar, when REAL ECONOMIC INFLATION is here. For now, they are dead in the water - which is 100% in line with Elliott Wave predictions. "Wave C" is unfolding in 5 waves down. As surplus demand is being flushed from the system, Deflation will reemerge
Beautiful chart for GDX. Observe top in 2011 and nice decline into wave A. Then a clear ABC-correction into top in 2020, before Miners again have started a decline. Observe top in 2020! Right at 61.8% fib. Beautiful! 😉
Decline in wave C should take us just below bottom from 2015
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10, 2021
@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on TheZebergReport.com for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂
Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures
To the frustration of Central Banks, they cannot create inflation despite extreme money printing. They stimulate by infusing money into the system but cannot make the money circulate. Velocity drops dramatically. What they miss...You cannot solve a solvency problem with Liquidity
Read 14 tweets
Nov 22, 2020
Why do I think #Gold, #Bitcoin are about to tumble? Because of my cross-market-analyses approach with >100 charts pointing to a deflationary bust AND the Elliott Wave structures for Gold, Bitcoin and USD. Let's try investigate 1) Deflationary Thesis and 2) Elliott Wave-structures
The Deflationary Thesis is due to the patterns shaping up in all commodities. Commodities drive inflation. First GSCI Commodity Index - a very clear Ending Diagonal Triangle (Descending Wedge). Calls for DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM. TheZebergReport.com
#Wheat which is part of #Commodities setting direction for Inflation. Same pattern! Descending Wedge. Calls for Deflationary Bust - before Major SECULAR BOTTOM. Deflation before New Inflationary Regime! TheZebergReport.com
Read 22 tweets
Aug 24, 2020
Dear all. Please read following: My friend @officialwazzan is looking for software developers to join his startup pofty.com
👉 an ecosystem for labour and services, serving every professional and every profession (the legal ones of 😁)
....Thread 👇👉
👉Ecosystem for physical and virtual labour and services
👉 All professions, not just an area or a niche
👉For the wide use, no boring categories or questionnaires just down to the point
👉Searching for senior developers for equity in return
👉Developers who are experienced with:
Swift(IOS), MySQL(or other DBs), Ruby on Rails, Python Flask, Java, Good with API, Mentality of a founder
Read 4 tweets

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