Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CRB

Most recents (16)

These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets
No doubt in my mind, that current rally in #SP500 and #equities is a counter-trend move - and that we will soon see a major deflationary CRASH. I have updated my SP500 outlook - some changes! Stay tuned for #HZupdates this afternoon. First - 88 km bike ride to Helsingør 👍
Back - a little tired - but feeling good! 🚴💪 Stay tuned for some #HZupdates - my perspectives on markets.
#Deflation phase is not over and done. #CRB tells this story. The decline from w4 top must have 5 waves and throw-over. We still need last leg before SECULAR BOTTOM.
Read 12 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
Trust you are safe! For a long time, I have been forecasting #DEFLATION. We got that! Today, I want to address, why I think we are about to see a NEW ECONOMIC REGIME arise soon - and why #STAGFLATION will be the transformation into the coming Kondratiev Spring #HZupdates
We know, that Fed and CBs around the world have been printing money - and lots of it! However, we have failed to see inflation - to the regret of Draghi, Yellen, etc. Despite their efforts, inflation has been in decline. Why? Because Velocity of Money has been in strong decline.
Two factors to create inflation: 1) Amount of money 2) Speed of circulation. The latter has been in decline for years as during Kondratiev's Winter, debt has become a burden to society - which hinders growth. The more debt - the less growth - and hence slower money circulation
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from zerohedge.com/markets/someth…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
Good morning! #Equities continue to defy gravity. This has more to do with the insane monetary environment CBs have created. Macro economic reality says something completely different. The division (=the bubble) will come to haunt us all. Please stay tuned for #HZupdates
Why is it, that some analysts try to explain away the obvious? We have a major bubble in ...well almost all assets. #Schiller PE for #SP500 tells us, that the bubble is at 1929-level. Could it grow bigger? Sure!! But that does not make it a non-bubble #HZupdates
Amount of neg. yielding debt has skyrocketed. Remember, this is discount factor. If discount factor is closing in on 0 (or goes neg.) then value of any asset is going to infinity. But that has NOTHING to do with true value of any asset. This is "Bubble food"! #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning! 😀Trust you are well! Some interesting developments in markets. I will provide my perspective here in #HZupdates
#Oil has strong influence on price development (inflation). Seems to be developing in Ending Diagonal. We may see wave (B) develop as a triangle - before next move down towards target <20 USD #HZupdates
Similar pattern in ##Commodity index #CRB. Consolidation below trendline. Next major move should send #CRB much lower. This is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 13 tweets
Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates
#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates
Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 12 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
E que tal um #fiodameada (vulgo #thread) com o que cada clube ainda com chances na #CopadoNordeste precisa fazer para se classificar?

Pois é, então acompanha a sequência aí... ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Antes uma observação, pela forma que foram organizados os cruzamentos das quartas de final em diante. A final da #copadonordeste2019 será obrigatoriamente entre um time do Grupo A e outro do Grupo B.
A 8ª e última rodada é esta. Com todos os jogos simultâneos, começando às 16h.
Read 21 tweets

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