Thread by @Noahpinion

Updated protest list:

Right now there are major protests in:
Hong Kong
Iran
Iraq
Lebanon
Algeria
Chile
Bolivia
Spain
France
Indonesia
Haiti

Where else?

Strike Indonesia from the list. And possibly France, where protests have dwindled.

The unrest seems grouped into two main geographic clusters - one in Latin America (including also the collapse of Venezuela and the recently concluded protests in Ecuador) reflecting traditional left-right cleavages, and one in the Middle East.

The Hong Kong protests, though not the most violent, seem like the big exception - unrest in a rich, stable place where unrest is rare.

The Iran protests also seem of potential geopolitical significance, though it's too early to tell.

Some of the Latin American protests seem to be leading to some constructive developments - a constitutional referendum in Chile, a compromise economic plan in Ecuador. Venezuela seems screwed, sadly, and Bolivia may be heading that way too.

The Middle East protests are harder to gauge...I hope they don't lead to another series of big wars like the Arab Spring did!

And who knows what will happen in Spain.

But although the Hong Kong protesters seem highly unlikely to get the democracy they demand, those protests seem likely to have the biggest and deepest worldwide repercussions. Because the rise of China is still the most important thing happening in geopolitics today.

I think people instinctively know that the Hong Kong protests have a special importance above and beyond what might seem warranted by their level of violence and chance of success.

Any potential shift in China's role in the world is inherently very scary.

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