With all the talk on $BTC miner capitulation, it's a good time to look at what kind of story the data tells - with a little help from @thetokenanalyst.
A short thread 👇🏼
A short thread 👇🏼
1/ The miner wallet net flows from September to present day, point to the story so far having been driven by speculation. Nothing out of the ordinary.
Until yesterday.
Until yesterday.
2/ Untagged miner wallets saw $20M of net outflows. While it might not sound like a lot, comparatively, it is the 2nd largest single day of net outflows from untagged wallets in 2019 in USD terms.
3/ An interesting complement here, is how the block reward distribution has been trending as of late.
It looks like the untagged addresses have been gaining ground, at the expense of known addresses.
Make more $BTC 👉🏻 dump more $BTC
It looks like the untagged addresses have been gaining ground, at the expense of known addresses.
Make more $BTC 👉🏻 dump more $BTC
4/ Looking at the relative miner rewards per mining pool, it appears that the tagged smaller pools by hashrate distribution (bar F2) are lagging behind the bigger pools.
Goes along with the narrative that the bigger fish are strongarming the smaller at the margin.
Goes along with the narrative that the bigger fish are strongarming the smaller at the margin.
5/ BUT - one would imagine that the untagged wallet collective reward more likely represents a collection of smaller and potentially less operationally efficient miners.
The chart below points to the contrary.
The "unknowns" are eating other people's lunch!
The chart below points to the contrary.
The "unknowns" are eating other people's lunch!
6/ Now, are these definitive signs of capitulation? There's plenty pointing to the fact that we're not there yet; starting from the $BTC value of miner net outflows from untagged wallets.
While Nov 19 was the 2nd highest outflow in USD terms, it was only the 4th in BTC terms.
While Nov 19 was the 2nd highest outflow in USD terms, it was only the 4th in BTC terms.
7/ Also, capitulation would have us see those with dwindling revenues to liquidate en masse.
So far we are seeing the opposite - with a big caveat in that the untagged wallets are a black box; i.e. the recent liquidations could indeed have come from the losers of that pool.
So far we are seeing the opposite - with a big caveat in that the untagged wallets are a black box; i.e. the recent liquidations could indeed have come from the losers of that pool.
8/ As a final note, mass miner capitulation will probably look like something like what we saw in November 2018, as $BTC prices started collapsing.
Every other significant event since pales in comparison.
Every other significant event since pales in comparison.
