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The Week Ahead in FX
Nov. 25-29, 2019
EUR clipped by bad EU data and better US results
1.1000 now key support
Monday - IFO
Thursday - CPI
GBP - Brexit + weak EU market finally starting to take its toll.
Tories lead but relief rally may not come as Q4 looking like negative growth
No Data this week
JPY - watch for US inflation creeping up
Wednesday data dump
Durables
Core PCE - forecast at 0.2% vs. 0%
USDJPY needs to close above 109.00 for + bias to resume
CAD poking towards 1.3300 despite decent data
Friday GDP only event on the plate
AUD
RBA speak on Tuesday - watch for any hints that they may cut again after weak labor data
Wednesday weak PCE could be straw that breaks the camels back
NZD
Monday - Retail Sales
Tuesday Orr speaks
Wednesday NZD business confidence
Kiwi holding up for now
Cross of the week GBPJPY
A massive distribution top looks like its ready to crack
watching 139.00
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Boris Schlossberg
@Fxflow
Your ebook outlines a strategy that you call a “lockbox.” Can you take us through it?

The idea is that you segment your money. It’s similar to using “buckets” but with a time component. A retiree might have a box for 2020 and a box for 2021, and 2022, etc.
In each box, you have a combination of safe assets, such as an annuity or TIPS [Treasury inflation-protected securities], and a market-based portfolio, such as one with stocks and bonds.
You have the key if you need to access the funds, but the idea is that, once a year, you would sell the assets in that year’s lockbox. You put all your money in locked boxes to begin with, and you just happily open locked boxes
Read 8 tweets
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Boris Schlossberg
@Fxflow
Weekly Technicals
Nov. 18 - Nov. 22, 2019
EURUSD
1.1000 holds and pair looks ready to challenge 1.1100
Weekly Technicals
Nov. 18 - Nov. 22, 2019
GBPUSD
Consolidation ahead of run to 1.3000
Weekly Technicals
Nov. 18 - Nov. 22, 2019
USDJPY
Just made a higher low. 109.00 back in view
Read 8 tweets
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Boris Schlossberg
@Fxflow
Weekly Technicals November 11-15, 2019
EURUSD needs to hold 1.1000
USDJPY only a close above 109.50 keeps bullish impulse in play
USDCAD move through 1.3250 opens run to 1.3350
EURUSD - 1.1000 key hold
USDJPY - a break above 109.50 opens 110.00 in view
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
« Not in my wildest dreams would I imagine that a possibility » is how an influential European diplomat responded to Boris Johnson’s assertion that a trade deal with the EU can be completed by December next year /1
Surely the diplomat is being unfair, you say. Listen to Michel Barnier and incoming trade commissioner Phil Hogan. They say a deal can be done quickly. The U.K. currently shares EU rules and regulations. How difficult can it be to strip them away to a basic FTA, you say..BUT /2
If Johnson wins a majority in this election and takes U.K. out of EU in Jan, then Brussels is preparing to offer him a quick FTA but with the utmost levels of EU regulation bells and whistles attached (so-called level playing field provisions) /3
Read 21 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU trying to digest this morning what exactly last night means for negotiations. Le Monde article below starts with words: « Another crazy day in Brexitland » /1
EU mood the morning after the night before is bittersweet. EU leaders glad to see rejection in parliament of no deal (+ there’s thinly-veiled Schadenfreude about Johnson’s defeat. The man who EU heard saying you just need more oomph and positive thinking to make a deal..)BUT /2
EU repeats what said last time parliament voted against no deal: the only way to ban no deal is to make a deal with EU or cancel #Brexit otherwise no deal happens by default /3
Read 11 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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Louise Mensch
@LouiseMensch
#Brexit supporters like me hold @realDonaldTrump in profound contempt. We know he’s a liar. He’s offered the U.K. *zero* special trade deals. He’s done nothing but insult the Queen.

If ever there was an argument for pressing pause and taking Tusk’s long extension, ERG, its this.
With a year, we can negotiate a better version of EFTA. Freedom of movement *without a job* can be eliminated. Common Market 2 solves many problems. #DelayBrexit
By the way, @realDonaldTrump, threatening our EU friends and allies like @campaignforleo and Ireland is totally unacceptable. It’s not what #Brexit supporters want or stand for. The ERG will find it as ugly as Remain do. Nobody believes you will do anything for the U.K.
Read 3 tweets
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Gergely Polner
@eurocrat
#Brexit White Paper is finally out

Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. The full U.K. solution to the Irish border will be rejected by the EU
2. A ‘common rulebook for goods’ - the EU could do two things: A) reject as cherry-picking parts of the single market or B) start discussing how much of this is doable under an FTA.
There’s a good chance it would be B, but it will have to be tweaked significantly
Read 5 tweets

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