Firstly, as YouGov says it's not a prediction. It's based on an 11% Con lead, but there are two weeks to go, and if that lead falls to around 7% then we are back in hung parliament territory. 1/6
A seat with a 1k majority is lost by only 500 Lab voters switching. 3/6
bbc.co.uk/news/election-…
Together with the push on Labour Leave voters, the arithmetic of this election could still be significantly altered in the next two weeks. 6/6