Thread by @ChristabelCoops

Thread on the @YouGov MRP results last night.

Firstly, as YouGov says it's not a prediction. It's based on an 11% Con lead, but there are two weeks to go, and if that lead falls to around 7% then we are back in hung parliament territory. 1/6

But it does highlight the real problem for Lab - significant numbers of its Leave voters are switching *directly* to the Tories.

In May only 2% of 2017 Lab voters were switching to Con. Now it's around 12%. The change of PM and Boris securing a deal shifted the landscape 2/6

Direct switchers are dangerous because they count double in a Lab/Con seat. A switcher to BXP was less bad because it only takes a vote off the Lab total, whereas a direct switcher also adds a vote to Con.

A seat with a 1k majority is lost by only 500 Lab voters switching. 3/6

Hence the change in Labour strategy announced this morning to target Labour Leavers and start highlighting the problems with Boris Johnson's deal which conflict with traditional Labour priorities around public services and jobs. 4/6
bbc.co.uk/news/election-…

But Remainers in Leave voting seats could also be significant. Take Bedford, which YouGov predicts will narrowly go Tory.

It would only take 7% of voters who are currently planning to vote LD or Green to switch to Lab in order to save the seat. 5/6

Around 20 seats could be moved out of the Conservative column if less than a third of current LD/Green voters switched to Lab.

Together with the push on Labour Leave voters, the arithmetic of this election could still be significantly altered in the next two weeks. 6/6