[THREAD] For this WaPo story, I spent many weeks reporting on the evolving relationship between government weather forecasting and the burgeoning private sector. Here’s what I found: We’re on the precipice of a paradigm shift. 1/ washingtonpost.com/business/2019/…
To date, the National Weather Service (w/in NOAA, which is part of the Commerce Department (more on that in a moment)), the gov’t has provided most of our weather data at taxpayer expense, and all official watches & warnings. 2/
Over time, private sector weather companies have flourished by adding value to the free data & services the government offers. These companies are now a $7 billion+ industry, and incl. names like @breakingweather, The @weathercompany (part of IBM), and @JupiterIntel 3/
Currently, NOAA is running behind other countries in the accuracy of its computer models, with its main *updated* GFS model running 3rd right now compared to the Euro and Canadian models (these rankings change relatively frequently, but the Euro is a consistent leader). 4/
With the rise of AI, machine learning, cloud computing, lowered cost of supercomputing, plus the newly-eased access to Low Earth Orbit, the private sector is increasingly able to duplicate if not replace the functions of the public sector. 5/
The Weather Company, for example, just debuted a global, high-res computer model – the first private company ever to do so. This could advance short-term forecasting in developing countries, while also presenting new revenue opps. 6/
This model, known as GRAF, was built as part of a private partnership with the university community, using an open source computer code. 7/
NOAA is trying to organize a new center, known as EPIC, that would leverage AI, machine learning, experts from the private and public sectors, and more, to develop the next generation of weather models to take back the lead. 8/
To succeed, this requires $$ from Congress, and cooperation throughout the entire weather sector. It’s also becoming clear that EPIC may need to be located outside of NOAA to avoid being vulnerable to the whims of one NOAA director to the next. 9/
BTW, NOAA is currently operating with an acting administrator, and likely will be for the entirety of Trump’s first term. This is already the longest the agency has gone without a Presidentially-appointed permanent administrator since its creation in 1970. 10/
Back to the private sector. Some companies are pursuing $$ by selling data to NOAA. NOAA is moving cautiously forward with a “data buy” but officials worry about the viability of these companies’ business models. 11/
Another big concern is whether private weather companies selling weather data to NOAA to use in computer modeling would seek to limit the sharing of such data. This would rob taxpayers and international partners of taxpayer-funded info. 12/
Some experts told me it’s possible that in the next decade, private companies will play a far larger role in weather and environmental forecasting, including potentially issuing weather warnings and watches of their own and charging citizens AND businesses for them. 13/
Making lifesaving watches and warnings subject to the profit motive is potentially problematic. 14/
What was for a long time a 70/30 balance between the public/private weather industry is now closer to 50/50, and most sources I talked to say it’ll trend closer to 40/60 very soon. 14/
For those who’ve made it this far in the thread – here's why NOAA is in the Commerce Dept. It goes back to a grudge. Richard Nixon was angry w/ his Interior Secretary, Wally Hickel, at the time and therefore scuttled the plan to house it there. sciencemag.org/news/2012/01/w… 15/
Instead, Nixon put it in Commerce, which also runs the US Census, and an obscure but vital science research agency known as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This means that Wilbur Ross is currently the top official at the agency overseeing NOAA. 16/
There are pros and cons to having the private sector take on a bigger role in weather and environmental (climate, disease outbreak, algal bloom etc.) forecasting. The public may not be entirely aware of the transition that’s taking place, as well as the promises and pitfalls. 17/
Hopefully this story helps bring people up to speed. The bottom line is there are a lot of exciting advances taking place inside and outside of gov’t, but much depends on decisions made in the next few years in academia, gov’t agencies, Congress, and from the public...18/18
