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As Britain goes to the polls, the EU is preparing a brand new list of '#Brexit Unicorns'. My latest @Telegraph comment:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
The EU's first demand from its Christmas wish list: Boris Johnson should break his promise not to extend the eleven months transition period if he wants a proper trade deal
A second EU demand is that the UK agrees to grant the EU access to British fishing waters "by June, so in four months”
Thirdly, the EU wants the UK to sign up to so-called level playing field commitments to guarantee it will not undercut European social, tax and environmental standards, redefining a refusal to copy the EU's failing model of excessive regulation when exporting to EU as "dumping"
Fourthly, security cooperation will be a further condition of a EU-UK trade deal. If UK becomes a competitor and diverges, this will not only result in reduced EU market access, but it will also hurt cooperation in other areas. All “to keep UK in the continental Europe's orbit”.
A fifth demand is that the new relationship should be governed by a single overarching deal, instead of a Swiss-style patchwork of bilateral agreements + EU wants some kind of permanent framework to govern the relationship, with a coordinating body and two EU-UK summits per year
Furthermore, The EU will also attempt to make the UK sign up to freedom of movement in return for tariff-free market access, "so not to split the four freedoms" - never mind that free movement of persons was carved off in the EU-Ukraine deal
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More from @pietercleppe see all

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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
Just how much does Boris Johnson's deal concede to the EU?

My latest @Telegraph comment: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@Telegraph Despite endless claims that it would refuse to renegotiate the binding part of Theresa May’s deal, the EU finally engaged. That's a UK win in itself, but the EU deserves credit for being flexible.
UK win: British negotiators managed to persuade the EU to agree that Northern Ireland will remain a part of the UK’s customs territory permanently, meaning that residents of Northern Ireland will enjoy the benefits of trade deals negotiated by the UK
Read 14 tweets
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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
My latest @Telegraph comment: The EU risks squandering its last chance to do a deal with Britain
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/… #Brexit @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier
Parliament can’t really agree on much:

There is no support, at least not yet, for any of the alternatives: a Brexit deal, allowing “no deal”, revoking article 50, an early election or a second referendum
Given that Boris Johnson may adopt a much more radical position on Brexit in the event of an election, in order to gain votes from the Brexit party, the EU would do well to realise a deal with him now is likely to be much easier rather than one later. Betting on Labour is risky.
Read 15 tweets
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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
My latest @telegraph comment: This may well be the EU’s last chance to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But will they take it?telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Thread ->
Boris Johnson's future as PM may hinge on whether he can avoid having to request a three-month extension on 18 October.
Brussels may now be strategising on the basis that, if they grant an extension, a @UKLabour government, intent on stopping a no deal #Brexit, could well come to power - and such a situation may work to Brussels' advantage.
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what does the #Brexit future hold, if it happens?

Sir Ivan Rogers peered into his crystal ball last night, and didn't like what he saw.

But even Sir Ivan doesn't have 20/20 futurevision...so here's a look at Ivan's view and other possibilities. 1/thread
First, Sir Ivan's bleak thesis from his 21-page speech. Tl;dr the #Brexit ticking clock strikes again; @BorisJohnson is boxed into a corner and such a miserable deal the Cabinet argues (erroneously) for WTO-only since it's only marginally more damaging, but preserves 'leverage'/2
@BorisJohnson How do we get here? (full text below) Well, first Johnson doesn't extend - too costly, too much "eating of words" and party opposition to "vassalage" of transition (which btw Johnson was genuinely exercised about when he was Fgn Sec). Which leads../3

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ivan-…
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: Incoming Johnson administration being warned that 'no deal' means passing legislation to bring 'direct rule' back to Northern Ireland.

This will be politically utterly toxic - and put UK and Irish govt on collision path 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/2…
This is a hugely under-appreciated issue for any no deal, since it would effectively mean a UK government, propped up by @duponline, legislating to effectively suspend the Good Frirday Agreement. /2
@duponline It would also put rocket-boosters under Nationalist/Sinn Fein demands of a border poll /3
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🧯🧯🧯 BRACE BRACE so reports via @bbclaurak that @BorisJohnson is going to

1) unilaterally offer to guarantee EU citizens rights

Buut what about steps 2 & 3 of his 'plan' - viz

2) suspend £39bn in 'creative ambiguity' over neg

3) sort out Ireland via trade talks? 1/thread
@bbclaurak @BorisJohnson That was the plan, as set out on the stump....I set it out here...point by point...what Johnson is saying...how the EU would react.

I'm now expecting some clarity on MORE than just point 1. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@bbclaurak @BorisJohnson So here is point one - although as plenty have pointed out, no SO generous, since May already promised this. And no-one has ever talked about deportations. /3
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The 'third way' is now the new thing in the #Brexit debate. Like No.10 suddenly discovered something last weekend after two years of trying.

So here's a long read on why there are no magic bullets to fix the customs conundrum - my latest

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
On the upside, a 'third way' carries implicit acknowledgement that the first two ways (the MaxFax and the New Customs Partnership) cannot solve the need for a border in the Irish Sea, if May wants to leave Customs Union and Single Market.

So what might the 'third way' be? /2
It will be a 'news customs arrangement' (which is code for a customs union, probably sugared by the idea that it's 'temporary' and only a bridge to the 'future' when technology (block chain blah) works and the 'new customs partnership) comes to fruition. /3
Read 10 tweets

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