Just how much does Boris Johnson's deal concede to the EU?
My latest @Telegraph comment: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
My latest @Telegraph comment: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@Telegraph Despite endless claims that it would refuse to renegotiate the binding part of Theresa May’s deal, the EU finally engaged. That's a UK win in itself, but the EU deserves credit for being flexible.
UK win: British negotiators managed to persuade the EU to agree that Northern Ireland will remain a part of the UK’s customs territory permanently, meaning that residents of Northern Ireland will enjoy the benefits of trade deals negotiated by the UK
EU win: the UK government conceded to customs checks in the Irish Sea, on top of regulatory checks; Northern Ireland will, de facto, remain in the EU’s single market (Good access for NI businesses to EU27 is of course also a UK win)
UK win: giving the Northern Irish Assembly the right to no longer align with the EU as closely, if there is a simple majority for that in the assembly. This amounts to EU and Ireland conceding to a unilateral exit mechanism linked to a time limit.
EU win: Right for Northern Ireland to leave the arrangement only possible 6 years after end of transition (2027 or 2029). Single majority is needed (which DUP sees as contra GFI) + there's no option for NI to opt-in, only to opt-out. @DUP wanted opt-in and veto for each community
My view: DUP wants a vote before the arrangement enters into force but surely the nationalist community would also need to agree to disalign w EU? If they're not, perhaps something closer to the status quo – reconciled with Brexit being delivered –isn’t such an unfair compromise?
UK win: The EU has conceded that regarding checks between Great Britain to Northern Ireland, personal goods and goods that “will not be subject to commercial processing in Northern Ireland” will not be checked.
EU win: Details of how many GB-NI checks will take place will all be decided by a “Joint Committee” of EU & UK officials, so the EU will still have a say in this. Then keep in mind how unhappy some in EU are to outsource its external customs checks to UK:
My view: In this way, the EU is effectively tolerating some leaks in its already leaky external barrier. Barnier openly admits that "we cannot totally eliminate the risks". This is exactly the kind of flexibility needed to solve the complex Northern Irish puzzle.
Slight EU win: EU law on VAT will apply in Northern Ireland, the UK will be responsible for collecting it, but the UK will be able to apply Ireland's VAT reduced rates and exemptions in NI, so the “tampon tax” can remain abolished there
UK win: UK has conceded to a “level playing field” (promise to not overly diverge from EU environm & social rules). but this won’t be enforceable, as it's part of the non-binding political declaration (unlike Theresa May’s level playing field arrangement):
Slight UK win: By getting rid of the backstop, @BorisJohnson can also claim to have removed the role of the European Court of Justice, at least for Great Britain, as otherwise the UK would have outsourced its trade policy to the EU – and therefore also its top court.
Conclusion: Boris Johnson's strategy of showing that the UK was serious about no-deal, has - fundamentally - worked, even if the EU and Ireland need to be credited for having engaged. The question is whether DUP will get another chance to influence the process, after an election.
