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Peter Foster @pmdfoster
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
The 'third way' is now the new thing in the #Brexit debate. Like No.10 suddenly discovered something last weekend after two years of trying.

So here's a long read on why there are no magic bullets to fix the customs conundrum - my latest

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
On the upside, a 'third way' carries implicit acknowledgement that the first two ways (the MaxFax and the New Customs Partnership) cannot solve the need for a border in the Irish Sea, if May wants to leave Customs Union and Single Market.

So what might the 'third way' be? /2
It will be a 'news customs arrangement' (which is code for a customs union, probably sugared by the idea that it's 'temporary' and only a bridge to the 'future' when technology (block chain blah) works and the 'new customs partnership) comes to fruition. /3
The UK will also, I'm guessing, accept the need for 'high' (which will become 'complete' alignment with EU rules to argue this is not going to be a 'two-step' process, but a rolling 'bridge' (or maybe travelator) to the future. FWIW the EU will take a lot of convincing. /4
Of course, the devil will be in the detail and the language is - unless something very surprising happens - going to be sufficiently vague to keep everyone on board.

Recall the June 7 Customs Paper and the row over the 'time-limit'.... /5
To David Davis 'time-limited' meant a fixed end-date for this temporary UK membership of a full customs union for the backstop - to everyone else, that was a mere aspiration.

And this is key. The extent to which Brexiteers are prepared to accept 'aspiration'... /6
How far are Brexiteers prepared to connive in the fiction that the sunny uplands and Britain's independent trade policy are just over the horizon, so that we can all step over the gain line in March 2019.

There are signs...
Recall that Davis accepted the 2021 aspiration in the Customs paper, even though the Cabinet has been told by HMRC/Robbins that nothing is ready, best case, until 2023.

So it seems it is possible to construct parallel universes /8
And then recall that weird letter May wrote to MPs after the Customs paper row of June 7...which talked of customs being ready by end of transition (Dec 31 2020)... /9

All of which doesn't change fact that accessing a 'third way' is going to require activating some political goodwill and pragmatism on the EU side...or Macron/Merkel intervene as Franklin Dehousse suggests (somewhat fancifully) here. 10/END

linkedin.com/pulse/brexit-a…
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Right. Some quick takeaways on the 'reassurance to the DUP' document that's just been published by UKG here 1/Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. If the backstop kicks in, UKG will ensure GB doesn't diverge to minimise regulatory 'gap' over Irish Sea.

This fits what @DLidington said before Xmas /2
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DLidington It's not a magic bullet, but officials say it will "chisel right down" the number of additional checks needed, until such time as the backstop is replaced. /2
Read 12 tweets
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The DUP still playing hardball...despite efforts by UK Govt to do more to assuage fears raised by backstop.

But will be interesting barometer of where we are, to see how hard DUP reaction is to new paper to be published later this AM. /1
What is this? Well, per @SkyNews @DLidington will set out a series of measures that is intended to address fears raised by the Withdrawal Agreement that Northern Ireland is going to be treated very differently. See below. /2
@SkyNews @DLidington What's the problem here? Well go back to December 2017 and the Joint Report on Brexit, which was agreed after a DUP walkout forced May to retreat.

The DUP won an extra Para (50) which promised "unfettered" trade between NI and GB internal markets "in all circumstances" /3
Read 7 tweets
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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets

Related threads

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#Marr
1) honest, straightforward #Brexit politics
There's now 4 major players in the Brexit debate
- Remainers
- May's Deal supporters
- Hard/No deal brexiters
- Labour Leadership

Labour Leadership are the most dishonest & duplicitous by any measure by some margin
#PeoplesVote
2) Remainers - are clear on their offer and objectives. Do not pretend that a reversal would be easy but are the most clear on exactly what Remain means.
The economic impacts are most clear as well, because Remain has no negative impact in the short or mid term
3) May's deal - for all its faults May's deal is at least real & achievable. There's a level of dishonesty as to what it means & the implications, and a pretence that it's "better for the country" but in general people can assess it

Like Remain, the EU will accept it
Read 12 tweets
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Here is what Andrea Jenkyns, the @Conservatives MP who accused @The3Million campaigners of fear-mongering and blocked me after I asked questions about her position, has to say about the #Brexit #WhitePaper. I am lost for words: there is nothing about this in the White Paper! 1/
So that tweet is a big fat lie. But of course here’s the thing: even if something about claiming benefits was in the White Paper, EU citizens who come to the UK to work and live of course *are* British taxpayers (and contribute in so many other ways). 2/
Obviously I cannot challenge Jenkyns directly because she has blocked me. But perhaps she does read this:
Your tweet is shameful beyond measure and low even by your standards: you must know this is false and yet there you are, blowing the dog whistle with a lie. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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1. They say the leave side lied in the #Brexit referendum. As it happens, everybody did. That's what politics is. Lying. It's a fight between you, me and the swamp. It's always a battle for the disengaged middle. This is why Jacob Rees-Mogg lies so brazenly.
2. The man is no idiot. The man knows his lies are transparent to anyone with half a clue. But he knows his target audience doesn't have any clue at all. The image he projects has an air of authority. It's about getting people to believe in him.
3. He certainly doesn't give a flying fuck about the people he is using. The disengaged middle are just a political resource to be used for as long as is convenient. No lie is too big so long has he gets his version of Brexit.
Read 25 tweets
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1. Yesterday our gifted PM once again ruled out the EEA while still claiming we can have frictionless trade. The old dear is clearly off her rocker. There is no way #Brexit won't be an utter pigs ear if we leave the single market. I don't think the withdrawal act is going to work
2. There is an assumption that we simply copy and paste the rules of system and we are good to go. Rebuilding the regulatory regime to function independently is a legislative nightmare and it can't be done in two years. You need major consultations.
3. Many assume that the regulations are just a list of do's and don't. It isn't that. Regulations are systems. They range from maritime surveillance, standards enforcement to energy grid management - some of which is hooked in with a number of EU institutions.
Read 14 tweets
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Two years on from #Brexit referendum vote, UK growth has slumped. Lowest of any G7 country. Lower than Eurozone. Likely to fall further (c. Airbus). But hey, no worries, it's all #ProjectFear say the #Brexiteers (graphic @WSJ)
Still, young Brits can always pick fruit - rather than look forward to careers in high-tech industries like Airbus. Well done #Brexiteers (but hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Consumer spending slumped after Brexit Referendum #PeoplesVoteMarch 🇬🇧🇪🇺 (Well done #Brexiteers. But hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Read 5 tweets
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Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets

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