Thread by @pmdfoster

So what does the #Brexit future hold, if it happens?

Sir Ivan Rogers peered into his crystal ball last night, and didn't like what he saw.

But even Sir Ivan doesn't have 20/20 futurevision...so here's a look at Ivan's view and other possibilities. 1/thread

First, Sir Ivan's bleak thesis from his 21-page speech. Tl;dr the #Brexit ticking clock strikes again; @BorisJohnson is boxed into a corner and such a miserable deal the Cabinet argues (erroneously) for WTO-only since it's only marginally more damaging, but preserves 'leverage'/2

@BorisJohnson How do we get here? (full text below) Well, first Johnson doesn't extend - too costly, too much "eating of words" and party opposition to "vassalage" of transition (which btw Johnson was genuinely exercised about when he was Fgn Sec). Which leads../3

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ivan-…

@BorisJohnson ...to a brutal pre-Christmas crunch where the EU offers a series of take-it-or-leave it offers on a "very thin" FTA that gives the EU what it wants on goods and pretty much nothing on services. Viz "We seem to be off to Canada. Without our services sector" /4

@BorisJohnson Worth reading the section on what that deal looks like.....I'd advise putting away sharp objects and stepping away from any high ledges or open casements before you do.

Here's a quick recap...it is framed by EU "off the shelf" premise, that flows from UK desire to diverge /5

@BorisJohnson From which flows the following on financial and other SERVICES.../6

(Worth reading @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU paper on #Brexit and services at this point)

cer.eu/publications/a…

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU On DATA...

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU On FREE MOVEMENT/People (key to services (Mode 4) /8

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU On AVIATION, HAULAGE etc /9

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU So then you can have a 'zero-tariff, zero-quota' deal (suits EU which runs surplus in goods trade with UK) BUT only if you accept level-playing field controls to avoid dumping.

(FWIW EU sources tell me the 'minimum' is what May agreed to in her deal for zero/zero access)/10
/10

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU And to explain costs of UK's 'divergence' agenda, Sir Ivan gives example of chemicals, and what that will mean in practice for UK industry. /11

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU All this having taken a beating on fish, which as my colleague @JamesCrisp6 says, will be the first thing on the agenda on Feb 1. No fish deal, no trade deal. /12

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 Now Sir Ivan cautions the EU about taking this approach - but there is absolutely no indication that their tactics will change. I asked a reliable EU source if Sir Ivan's summary matched EU think. "Yup" came back the reply...

So is all this definitely going to happen? Mmm../13

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 That's where things get more debatable...and there are a variety of views out there.

First @BorisJohnson could break his manifesto pledge and extend; throw the ERG and @Nigel_Farage under the bus, just like he did the DUP. It would, as Ivan says, be a "screeching" U-turn /14

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage This has been the prediction of various pundits - including @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe - though the manifesto commitment changes that, perhaps.

But if Johnson doesn't, then we get to the October/November "crunch" and (for all the reasons Ivan outlines) things get ugly.../15

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe Ivan outlines two possiblities:

a) Johnson sucks it all up, comes back and 'sells' his deal as a "big win"

But as @DavidHenigUK tells me in y'days Brexit Bulletin, that's going to be hard given the screaming from business lobby groups. Ivan also doubts that's doable. /16

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK But he did it in October with his NI-only pivot and collected the political reward points (see polls on his 'decisiveness') since most punters didn't really get what he'd done (capitulated) so why not again? Well, this time it'll be having real-world impacts. /17

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK OR Johnson/cabinet could do as Ivan suggest and walk away - go WTO, since as @SamuelMarcLowe points out, any deal done with EU on this time frame will be sufficiently "barebones" as to be not THAT different from a 'no deal' - lots of fricition/form-filling. /18

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK BUT if Johnson did that, nothing would guarantee we'd all be talking about #Brexit for the rest of his parliamentary term.

So what about a third option? Johnson peers over the cliff....and bottles it? /19

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK Now this presents problems - since the July 1 deadline in the Withdrawal Agreement is the last chance to get that 'status quo' transition made available by Article 50. So might their be another route? EU sources warn you'd have create whole new treaty? Is that possible? /20

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK Others will obvs know better than me - @CSBarnard24 @StevePeers - but the EU did a customs union for @theresa_may in 10 days so IF there was a will, might their be a way? After all neither side has show much appetite for the cliff... /21

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK @CSBarnard24 @StevePeers @theresa_may That isn't to sound complacent. The A50 transition is unique, so it would presumably fall short of that - and would beg big questions, about money, governance....and would the EU want this kind of mess? Let's see. Bits of the EU can also see value of 'clean break' /22

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK @CSBarnard24 @StevePeers @theresa_may There is talk in Brussels of member states agreeing to do a narow 'non-mixed' deal (which Sir Ivan rules out) which wouldn't need all-EU ratification, just to get the job done - or the first part of it. That might give an indication of the mood/direction of travel. /23

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK @CSBarnard24 @StevePeers @theresa_may Personally - and here I dare to disagree with Sir Ivan - I think Johnson is a bottler, judging by what happened in October. He's got no appetite for 'no deal' (to his credit IMO). As Sir Ivan says, he may have no choice, he's so boxed in, but he pivoted last time. /24

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU @JamesCrisp6 @Nigel_Farage @Mij_Europe @DavidHenigUK @CSBarnard24 @StevePeers @theresa_may But that may well be wrong. One senior Tory pol reckons the opposite. That Borish will want to front-load the pain and 'get it done'.

All of which is to say we're all guessing here - probably even Johnson himself. Happy days. Get #Brexit done comrades! 24/ENDS