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538 national polling average for Dec. 4, 2019:
Biden 26.0

Sanders 16.2
Warren 15.6

Buttigieg 10.1

Bloomberg 3.8
Yang 3.2
Klobuchar 2.2
Booker 1.6
Gabbard 1.4
Steyer 1.3
Castro 1.1
Patrick 0.7
Bennet 0.6
Williamson 0.5
Delaney 0.4
There's nothing super exciting here. Warren got a couple of good topline numbers today, but they're from pollsters that usually rate her highly so with our house effects adjustment the overall average is pretty much unchanged.
OK, one semi-noteworthy thing: we'll definitely want to see a couple more polls but Bloomberg only being at 3.8% isn't great given the $$$$ he's spent over the past 2 weeks.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Let's check people's intuitions here. I'll reveal the answer based on our research later.

A primary debate has about as much impact on the polls as ___ of ordinary campaigning*?

* Ordinary campaigning excludes the impact of primaries/caucuses & candidates entering/dropping out.
OK, people's intuitions are pretty good! We estimate that a debate moves the polls about as much as a week's worth (technically 7.5 days, but in practice the estimate isn't that precise) of campaigning.
We also find that debates produce a decent amount of reversion toward the mean (which we calculate based "fundamentals": a candidate's endorsements, money raised, and experience). They can sometimes serve as a reset for candidates who are over-performing or underperforming.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thought re: impeachment & Trump's approval ratings is that there's some opportunity cost for Democrats. While impeachment is decently popular, a lot of other attacks on Trump are potentially *more* popular. Plus, he tend to create new trouble for himself in slow news cycles.
I'm sure folks will say "It's not about impeachment. It's about Trump's conduct". Which both is and isn't true. The public *does* seem to think the conduct is bad. But they can be lukewarm on the impeachment process, and it may or may not be a good way to highlight the conduct.
Are there more voters who:

a) Think Trump's conduct is bad, but are turned off by impeachment? -or-
b) Are on the fence about Trump, could be persuaded by more focus on his conduct AND will pay some attention to impeachment?

Both groups are quite small, but maybe a close call.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Maybe this is too subtle to be worth pointing out, but it seems relevant that Bernie's early-state polling has improved more than his national polling. Before, his early state polls were lagging his national numbers, and now that's not really true...
Here's a comparison of Sanders's numbers now vs. Sept. 1 in our polling averages.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…

US: 16.6 > 17.0
Iowa: 14.7 > 17.4
NH: 19.7 > 17.3
NV: 15.2 > 19.8
SC: 14.1 > 14.0
So he's actually regressed a bit in New Hampshire, although the polling there has been weird all year. But his Iowa number has now caught up to his national number. And NV looks like a real potential strength for Sanders which could pay off in various scenarios.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Topless Topics
@ToplessTopics
#warren/#buttigieg 2020. Tell me why I'm wrong.
I was really hoping to elect a person of color, and I still have some interest in Harris. But she's getting too much heat for her prosecutor background. Besides Warren has the most policies that align with my view of America, AND she knows how to make those goals achievable!
And Buttigieg... I'm still learning about his ability to govern, but I'm continually impressed by how worldly and hella SMART he is. and he's obviously had some inside experience of oppression as a gay man from middle America.
Read 12 tweets

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