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Maybe this is too subtle to be worth pointing out, but it seems relevant that Bernie's early-state polling has improved more than his national polling. Before, his early state polls were lagging his national numbers, and now that's not really true...
Here's a comparison of Sanders's numbers now vs. Sept. 1 in our polling averages.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…

US: 16.6 > 17.0
Iowa: 14.7 > 17.4
NH: 19.7 > 17.3
NV: 15.2 > 19.8
SC: 14.1 > 14.0
So he's actually regressed a bit in New Hampshire, although the polling there has been weird all year. But his Iowa number has now caught up to his national number. And NV looks like a real potential strength for Sanders which could pay off in various scenarios.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FWIW, I think the party nomination systems are reasonably well-designed and having a sequential nomination process is more robust in many respects than having all elections on one day. The biggest flaw IMO is that the same non-representative states (IA/NH) always go first.
One minor thing: I'd like to see the Dems' delegate allocation give more of a bonus to state winners instead of being *so* proportional, especially later in the process.

e.g. maybe for primaries after April 1, 30% of a state's delegates are winner-take-all; 40% after May 1, etc
That would balance out the incentives for states between going early and late and could help a candidate who emerged as a frontrunner midway through the process to have a clearer victory without needing a contested convention, etc.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here are each Democratic candidate's strongest and weakest states, as determined based on a combination of polls and a regression derived from demographic and geographic factors (including home-state effects).

Biden:
Strongest: MS, DE, AL, SC, LA
Weakest: VT, MN, IA, NH, HI
Sanders:
Strongest: VT, RI, WA, CO, NV
Weakest: AL, DC, MD, DE, MS

Warren:
Strongest: MA, RI, ME, OK, CT
Weakest: MS, IN, DE, AL, SC

Buttigieg:
Strongest: IN, IA, NH, IL, ND
Weakest: MS, AL, LA, AR, WV
One thing that's a bit striking is the lack of geographic diversity among the major D candidates. Everyone's from the Northeast or the Midwest. That probably helps Biden who gets to be the sort of de facto Southern candidate. Bernie could do relatively well out West, meanwhile.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's a sneak peak of how we're going to be evaluating fundraising strength in our primary model.

Since it's unclear which of these is most predictive, we take an average of 3 different metrics:

* % of small donor $
* % of all individual $
* % of all $ including self-funding
More recent contributions will be weighted more heavily, so if you want to help your favorite candidate in the 538 model donate now, LOL.
More seriously, in contrast to earlier research, we do find fundraising has some predictive power in the primaries. About as much as endorsements, probably. This may reflect a change in the landscape. One of the things that's made me a bit more optimistic about Bernie's chances.
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Related threads

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Avi Bueno
@Avi_Bueno
Worth pointing out: *just this morning* Trump twice retweeted Katie Hopkins, a deeply racist woman from the UK, who is a proponent of the "white genocide" conspiracy theory referenced by the #ElPaso shooter.

In both tweets she engaged in the exact fearmongering that caused this.
Trump also retweeted Hopkins a week ago (& before that) while attacking Baltimore, Elijah Cummings, & "The Squad" in incredibly racist fashion, including telling them to go back go to where they came from (another key part of the shooter's ideology).

thinkprogress.org/trump-retweets…
And it's not just Trump. @JohnCornyn, the longtime Senator from Texas, who was tweeting his sympathy and prayers today, shared an article in June about how the Hispanic population of Texas last year outpaced the white population 9-1.
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Darran Marshall
@DarranMarshall
🔶Worth pointing out that the GFA is a legally binding international treaty & lodged with the UN. UK couldn’t unilaterally change it. Sources in Dublin tonight describing this as a ‘daft’ & a ‘non-starter’
Telegraph on Theresa May’s plan to ‘amend’ the Good Friday Agreement :

“The idea is likely to prove highly controversial and would require the consent of all parties in Northern Ireland.”
Reaction from @SDLPlive leader @columeastwood:

“The GFA ...marked an end to decades of violence and paved a way for peace. It is not a bargaining chip to be used by a chaotic British Government as a way to dig themselves out of a mess of their own creation.”
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Kevin Bass
@kevinnbass
Let's be clear Zoe. This is an hypothesis that has all available evidence against it.

USDA and FAO data both show fat going up since the dietary guidelines were released--and more than carbohydrates.

Thread. With graphs and data. 1/n
Here are USDA and FAO dietary trend data in the attached graphs.

As we can see, the "gap" between carbohydrates and fats narrows over time, indicating a faster rise of fats compared to carbohydrates. 2/n
Below is the above data, but with a breakdown for each nutrient class.

These observations suggests that the claim that reduced fat caused carbohydrates to go up is wrong. 3/n
Read 76 tweets
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Maddy Thimont Jack
@ThimontJack
Before the #whitepaper we thought amdts from Tory Remainers would be the big story this week on the #Brexit bills

Instead, after number of govt resignations, all eyes are on Brexiteer amdts to #CustomsBill

But what do they mean & what are some of the other amdts? 1/
ERG amdts
-prevent govt from collecting taxes/duties for territory without reciprocity
-NI can't be in separate customs territory to GB
-have to pass Act of Parl to participate in customs union
-remove powers to govern VAT of goods from territory if in a customs union with it 2/
1st is most difficult for govt as it goes against the govts customs proposal which would require the UK to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU

More info here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pms…

Other 3 are compatible with govt policy but would prevent movement to a softer #Brexit 3/
Read 11 tweets
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Ben Judah
@b_judah
Worth pointing out the difference from other forms of racism is that antisemitism is a conspiracy theory assigning uniquely mendacious powers to Jews, Jewish groups, or Israel.
What I’ve noticed in Britain is a struggle to conceptualise of racism beyond colour or origins based repugnance, fear of sense of superiority.
This failure means that people can believe in conspiracy theories centred on an ethnic group whilst thinking they are not racist because they don’t have anything against people of that group per se.
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