Let's check people's intuitions here. I'll reveal the answer based on our research later.
A primary debate has about as much impact on the polls as ___ of ordinary campaigning*?
* Ordinary campaigning excludes the impact of primaries/caucuses & candidates entering/dropping out.
A primary debate has about as much impact on the polls as ___ of ordinary campaigning*?
* Ordinary campaigning excludes the impact of primaries/caucuses & candidates entering/dropping out.
OK, people's intuitions are pretty good! We estimate that a debate moves the polls about as much as a week's worth (technically 7.5 days, but in practice the estimate isn't that precise) of campaigning.
We also find that debates produce a decent amount of reversion toward the mean (which we calculate based "fundamentals": a candidate's endorsements, money raised, and experience). They can sometimes serve as a reset for candidates who are over-performing or underperforming.
