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JOBS DAY 🥳🤓📢 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #cdnecon

Not a good report overall, and weakness continues in Alberta. Employment in AB down 18k in November and unemployment up to 7.2%. Just one report, but trend isn't good.
Digging deeper, the weakness in Alberta's labour market for young men just keeps getting worse. #ableg
Over the past year, employment has remained roughly flat. But population kept growing. Gap between where employment is and its pre-recession emp rates is now ~60k.
That "employment gap" is entirely concentrated among men. And as of November, the employment situation is about as bad as the worst point in the recession. #ableg
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
From today's GDP data, here's how the provinces compare. AB's economy leads with $80k per capita in 2018, followed by SK at $69k. National average of $63k.

When folks say Alberta's economy remains strong, despite the recession, this is what they mean. #cdnecon #ableg
The components of Alberta's GDP change are also interesting. The drop is entirely due to private investment declines (mostly oil and gas). In 2018, there was a slight decline from 2017. Remains ~$50b below 2014 peak.
On the income side, by far the largest drop was in corporate profits. Modest recovery of this continued in 2018. Labour compensation has now recovered ~1/2 of its drop in 2016.
Read 3 tweets
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Alberta's Budget 2019 proposes to increase income taxes to help lower the deficit. Have now had time to crunch some numbers. Here's the average cost to AB families, by income category. Equiv to ~0.2% of disposable income (or ~$150 per family per year by 2021). #ableg
And here's the same plot, but in dollars per family by income category. Average increase is ~$150 per year, but it varies across households depending on your income and credit situation.
Note: some are claiming that there are no tax increases. That is incorrect. De-indexing and removing some credits will increase income tax payments: roughly ~$330m in additional revenue (govt estimate is 311m) per year. That comes from taxpayers. What else shall we call it?
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Premier @jkenney claimed yesterday that the former NDP govt added 40,000 people to government's payroll. Is this true? No, it's misleading. (A short thread). #ableg
First, public-sector employment in Alberta indeed rose in recent years. During the former governments's tenure in office, public-sector employment rose nearly 50k. But, importantly, this includes all levels (feds, crown corp, muni, etc.).
Second, that data itself is puzzling and inconsistent with other measures of public employment. A great piece on this is from @CBCFletch at cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
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Stephen Tapp 🇨🇦 🌎
@stephen_tapp
New report on Canada’s Energy Future: Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 — the first long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (replacing the National Energy Board) cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/ftr…
#CdnEcon
Key Findings of this report:

1. Energy use grows slowly in the next 20 years.

Energy use per person is expected to decline by 16% by 2040, while energy use per dollar of GDP is expected to decline by 29%. #CdnEcon
2. The mix of energy sources that Canadians use will continue to change over time:

Increasing shares for:
- Natural gas

Falling shares for:
- Coal and oil products
Read 7 tweets
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Kevin Milligan
@kevinmilligan
I've been a bit skeptical of claims that the @CPC_HQ policy package has been cutting taxes 'for the rich'. Boutique tax credits do skew up toward the high end of the middle class, but they are not really focused at the top 1%.

But, today's @CPC_HQ announcement is very different.
Today's @CPC_HQ announcement *brings back* income sprinkling, and allows firms with $1million+ of assets to
shelter their savings in ways not available to other Canadians.

These proposals clearly benefit the highest earners who have private corps.

conservative.ca/scheer-pledges…
@CPC_HQ What is 'income sprinkling'? It allows dividends to paid out to family members of a private corp owner, effectively splitting their income and lowering tax bills. Why should only those private corp owners with specific family types have this tax break?

Read 6 tweets
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Dr. Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦
@JenniferRobson8
Last thread for the day folks because I'm tired and this election is already feeling longer than 2015. But here are a few things to say about the LPC policy announcement today as it compares to the CPC announcement on maternity AND parental (!!!) benefits. #cdnpoli
1) Is there evidence that some families with an infant (0-12 mo) are struggling to make ends meet? Yeah. Not widespread but some families find that their income in that first year isn't enough to get by. In fact, for some social assistance pays a higher rate of benefits than EI.
2) But which families are most likely to report having trouble making ends meet? Families with lower/modest incomes (based on year before child is born or adopted). As @billieeilish says ".......Duh"
Read 20 tweets
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Kevin Milligan
@kevinmilligan
2017 Canadian Income Survey is out!

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

Let's check kids living in low income, to get indication of impact of Canada Child Benefit:

2015 13.3%
2017 9.0%
Diff as %: ***33.1%***

What about the raw count of # of people?
2015: 900K
3017: 622K
Diff: **278K**.
...thanks to @JimboStanford for catching my typo....it is 2015 vs 2017!

Also, the reason I'm comparing 2015 to 2017 is that the Canada Child Benefit was implemented on July 1st 2016, so it only 'half' affected 2016.

Great point from @Geddes28. The right way to think here is 'counterfactually': what would child poverty have looked like in 2017 in the absence of the Canada Child Benefit? That's the right question, but requires deeper analysis.

Read 15 tweets
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Blake Shaffer 📊
@bcshaffer
Statistics Canada released some new GHG data today, linking emissions to economic accounts. Allows us to look at GHGs by industry and household sectors.

This calls for some charts.
#cdnecon #cdnpoli
First up. Total GHG emissions by province, 2009 and 2016 (date range of this data). Note: these totals will differ slightly from the National Inventory Account data. Explanation on that here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Now let's "per capita" that data. SK jumps up. AB actually declines (*slightly*) between 2009 and 2016 due to population growth.
Read 12 tweets
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Kevin Milligan
@kevinmilligan
I'm scheduled to go on @CKNW with @steeletalk just after 5pm PST.

You can live stream it here (in 45 minutes) globalnews.ca/radio/cknw/pla…

Also, I'll put some links in this thread as I'm doing my prep....
Oh yeah forgot to mention the topic: equalization!

Here's the deep background from @trevortombe.

It's 40 pages, but fairly readable for the layperson.

Up to date and informative, for sure.

ideas.repec.org/p/clg/wpaper/2…
@trevortombe Here's a blog post from @trevortombe with lots of graphics and short, easy-to-read explanation of equalization.

policyschool.ca/unpacking-cana…
Read 18 tweets

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