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From today's GDP data, here's how the provinces compare. AB's economy leads with $80k per capita in 2018, followed by SK at $69k. National average of $63k.

When folks say Alberta's economy remains strong, despite the recession, this is what they mean. #cdnecon #ableg
The components of Alberta's GDP change are also interesting. The drop is entirely due to private investment declines (mostly oil and gas). In 2018, there was a slight decline from 2017. Remains ~$50b below 2014 peak.
On the income side, by far the largest drop was in corporate profits. Modest recovery of this continued in 2018. Labour compensation has now recovered ~1/2 of its drop in 2016.
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Alberta's Budget 2019 proposes to increase income taxes to help lower the deficit. Have now had time to crunch some numbers. Here's the average cost to AB families, by income category. Equiv to ~0.2% of disposable income (or ~$150 per family per year by 2021). #ableg
And here's the same plot, but in dollars per family by income category. Average increase is ~$150 per year, but it varies across households depending on your income and credit situation.
Note: some are claiming that there are no tax increases. That is incorrect. De-indexing and removing some credits will increase income tax payments: roughly ~$330m in additional revenue (govt estimate is 311m) per year. That comes from taxpayers. What else shall we call it?
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Premier @jkenney claimed yesterday that the former NDP govt added 40,000 people to government's payroll. Is this true? No, it's misleading. (A short thread). #ableg
First, public-sector employment in Alberta indeed rose in recent years. During the former governments's tenure in office, public-sector employment rose nearly 50k. But, importantly, this includes all levels (feds, crown corp, muni, etc.).
Second, that data itself is puzzling and inconsistent with other measures of public employment. A great piece on this is from @CBCFletch at cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
Read 8 tweets
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Today's data: payroll employment!! 🥳 In April, Alberta saw modest gain of 2k. Now ~58k below pre-recession level. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #ableg #cdnecon
With nearly five-years having passed since the recession started, it's worth reflecting on the changing composition of jobs in Alberta. Big reductions in oil and gas, construction, manufacturing. Big increases in health/education.
Using a proxy for 'public' vs 'private', it still looks like there's been two full years of little to no gains in private-sector payroll job growth. Disappointing.
Read 8 tweets

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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
Thread: On the Economic Rise of China, Part III

1. China represents an existential threat to the national security of the US in terms of growth of military capabilities but more importantly in the economic realm as they pursue their “Made in China 2025” & Belt-Road initiatives.
2. The purpose of this thread series is to present the contents of one of those reports in “bite-sized chunks” that are more easily digestible in order to convey a better understanding of the Chinese economy and its long-term challenges to the US and the world.
3. Part I introduced and summarized the Congressional Research Service report, “China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States,” which forms the basis for this thread series.
Read 32 tweets
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Kishore C Iyer🇮🇳
@Kishoreciyer1
#GDP #ArvindSubramanian
Now that I have invoked the names of the great "Harvard" educated person. Let me break down what he has actually done! And as he claims he wouldn't have taken ~6 months to complete this paper, max would be a month. Ok diving into this... 1/n
I'm giving a layman's explanation of this so I will refrain from using complicated terms:
1. Get the Revised GDP growth rates from 2011-2017, do a correlation with all publicly available data like auto sales, credit growth, petroleum consumption, IIP data.. etc 2/n
Conclude that the correlation levels are not high enough
2. Use the same GDP data and find out the growth rates vs the same set of data & conclude that the relationship is haphazard (which is normal)
3. Using above two initial tests conclude that GDP is overestimated 3/n
Read 14 tweets
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Ketan Joshi
@KetanJ0
Folks, I'd like to expand on @timinmitcham's great thread here - basically predicting how the looming update on Aus emissions data will be spun (first, read Tim's thread, then come back to mine)
Here's the Iron Law of Australian climate pol -> All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.
So.
Read 31 tweets
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David Jensen
@RealDavidJensen
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan BRICS nations for years openly discussing trade w/ "parallel" monetary system including gold trade settlement.
Saudi put in place RippleNet alt. to SWIFT that allows bank-to-bank real-time settlement in any medium of trade.
Italy signalling ready to go.
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan More to the point - #gold seems to be the focal point of new trade settlement system.

“Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted." Alan Greenspan.

realnoevremya.com/articles/2075-…
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
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UCCat20
@UCC_Official
UCC had opportunity to comment on the #Data.Protection & Privacy Bill. The enactment of this law is long overdue. A comprehensive law on the collection & processing personal information gives effect to the right to Privacy envisaged under Article 27(2) of the Constitution
UCC welcome the protections offered by the Bill in terms of export of data, breach notification requirements, data subjects access rights, automated decision making, compensation and the right to be forgotten and provision for financial and penal sanctions for breach of the law.
Distinction between Data collectors & data controllers.
The Bill should however clarify & distinguish Data Collectors, from Data Processors & Data Controllers. Clause 2 is inconsistent with international good practice which provides for two broad categories of Data Controllers
Read 17 tweets

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