This is funny. Having read every bit of the Horowitz report that is about how the investigation was launched and on what basis, it’s clear the FBI’s efforts would have ended much more early on were it not for the way the dossier supercharged Page’s FISA warrants.
Their CHS efforts up until the point the dossier came into play yielded either “irrelevant” info or info that undermined the idea the campaign was coordinating with Russia.
(Horowitz noted prominently that the latter was quite ostentatiously excluded from the FISA warrant apps.)
(Horowitz noted prominently that the latter was quite ostentatiously excluded from the FISA warrant apps.)
What’s interesting and disconcerting about those bits of the IG report is that many of the nation’s top reporters are serially miscasting key elements of the investigation.
No, the dossier did not “start” the investigation.
But without the dossier, the investigation dies early.
No, the dossier did not “start” the investigation.
But without the dossier, the investigation dies early.
If the investigation dies early, there is no Comey firing, there is no Mueller report, and so on.
So it’s crucially important to understand in clear and detailed terms how the investigation started and how it was propelled into 2017.
So it’s crucially important to understand in clear and detailed terms how the investigation started and how it was propelled into 2017.
The investigation started because of a tip from an allied foreign official that Papadopolous was bragging about Russia offering dirt to the campaign.
Horowitz is clear that the tip itself, and the context of the DNC hack, met the “low threshold” of launching the investigation.
Horowitz is clear that the tip itself, and the context of the DNC hack, met the “low threshold” of launching the investigation.
Papadopolous liked to brag, particularly over drinks. NYT, to its credit, reported that the initial tip was gathered during a night of "heavy drinking."
Later, in another interview by the FBI, also involving alcohol, Papa would brag that the Israelis thought he join the CIA.
Later, in another interview by the FBI, also involving alcohol, Papa would brag that the Israelis thought he join the CIA.
People with serious prospects in the Agency almost never brag, much less talk about it.
Papadopoulos is, in other words, the kind of flashy, globetrotting political operator that blurts stupid shit over drinks he thinks make him look cool.
In short, not spectacularly credible.
Papadopoulos is, in other words, the kind of flashy, globetrotting political operator that blurts stupid shit over drinks he thinks make him look cool.
In short, not spectacularly credible.
So Horowitz is clear (at least a dozen or so times by my count) that it was this tip about Papa drunk bragging and the context of the DNC hack that met the "low threshold" FBI required to investigate the Trump campaign.
In the same breath, Horowitz recommends
In the same breath, Horowitz recommends
The agency reform the investigatory threshold to widen the "limited notice requirements" associated with investigations of "constitutionally protected activity" during a presidential campaign, particularly when it involved a "national major party campaign." 
I want to be clear on the next detail: The media saying Horowitz thought the FBI was right or justified or appropriate to investigate Trump is an incorrect read of Horowitz's report.
He made no such value judgement.
He made no such value judgement.
This language from Horowitz is DC beltway officialese for:
Of course the FBI met the standard to investigate, because the standard was laughably low.
A section leader, under the FBI's own rules, could have made this call.
So: Horowitz advises
Of course the FBI met the standard to investigate, because the standard was laughably low.
A section leader, under the FBI's own rules, could have made this call.
So: Horowitz advises
That, basically, the AG (an adult) be notified before such an enormous decision to investigate (See: Spy) on a major party campaign on a single tip and some context is launched into irreversible reality.
The narrative we're being told to shut up and consume is that Horowitz concluded Trump was worth investigating. That is not what Horowitz concluded. He concluded that the "low threshold" was satisfied and recommended that if such a scenario were ever to reoccur ...
The key principles in the Executive be explicitly talked in before the decision to launch the investigation at such a "low threshold" is made.
To continue: Once the FBI decided to launch the investigation, which Horowitz thought could use more adult supervision, they used their "confidential human sources" to gather interviews on Trump campaign officials.
The only problem?
These interviews went nowhere.
The information gathered was either "irrelevant" or undercut the central allegation that fueled the investigation in the first place!
These interviews went nowhere.
The information gathered was either "irrelevant" or undercut the central allegation that fueled the investigation in the first place!
Enter Christopher Steele.
So the IG reports that FBI didn't even want to attempt a FISA on Page until Steele stepped into the picture.
The investigation was going nowhere and was likely to evaporate until the dossier entered the picture.
And when it did, the Bureau's team ...
So the IG reports that FBI didn't even want to attempt a FISA on Page until Steele stepped into the picture.
The investigation was going nowhere and was likely to evaporate until the dossier entered the picture.
And when it did, the Bureau's team ...
Systematically omitted key information that undercut the allegation Page was likely to be a foreign agent.
And they did this multiple times over the course of four FISA applications.
Some of these omissions were pretty wild ...
And they did this multiple times over the course of four FISA applications.
Some of these omissions were pretty wild ...
1. That Page had been vetted and cleared as an "operational contact" for a sister intelligence agency.
2. That Steele himself DID NOT TRUST his own "key" source.
3. Omitted that in CHS interviews both Page & Papa flatly denied key allegations from the initial tipster and Steele
2. That Steele himself DID NOT TRUST his own "key" source.
3. Omitted that in CHS interviews both Page & Papa flatly denied key allegations from the initial tipster and Steele
So, while Horowitz did not find any "political" bias in FBI's investigation, there certainly was a bias present.
The FBI are cops.
So, FBI's bias was pro-investigation, and anything that did not help the investigation was cast aside.
The FBI are cops.
So, FBI's bias was pro-investigation, and anything that did not help the investigation was cast aside.
This is hardly the case that "dedicated public servants" were doing good things, as wider media would have the public believe.
These guys were grossly incompetent, put the very FISA court at risk, and trampled "constitutionally protected" rights in the process.
These guys were grossly incompetent, put the very FISA court at risk, and trampled "constitutionally protected" rights in the process.
I cannot emphasize enough the degree with which Steele's dossier acted to damage our democracy -- Russia's main goal, remember -- through supercharging an incompetently run, "low threshold" and likely to die FBI investigation.
So, no, it was not used to "start" the investigation. But that technicality obfuscates a reality that is much more damning for everyone involved -- to include a media eager to report every lurid detail about Evil Orange Man.
And here's the worst part:
The press, which is supposed to hold an unchecked surveillance apparatus accountable, doesn't.
The press, which is supposed to help the public understand with clarity the details of such an investigation, doesn't.
The press, which is supposed to hold an unchecked surveillance apparatus accountable, doesn't.
The press, which is supposed to help the public understand with clarity the details of such an investigation, doesn't.
Instead, the press amplifies the FBI's own obfuscations. The press carries the FBI's water. The press hires disgraced former intelligence officials en masse (unthinkable just a few years ago).
All because of Donald Trump.
All because of Donald Trump.
