If you’re just waking up, this is the situation
Bishop Auckland, Lab since 1935-gone
Bolsover, Lab since 1950- gone
Newcastle under Lyme, Lab since 1918, gone
Workington, Lab since 1918, gone
Wrexham, Lab since 1922, gone
Bishop Auckland, Lab since 1935-gone
Bolsover, Lab since 1950- gone
Newcastle under Lyme, Lab since 1918, gone
Workington, Lab since 1918, gone
Wrexham, Lab since 1922, gone
There has been a Scotland style realignment in the north and midlands
There have been huge swings to the Conservatives in those places.
With some exceptions, the Labour Party is now confined largely to the English cities and South Wales
There have been huge swings to the Conservatives in those places.
With some exceptions, the Labour Party is now confined largely to the English cities and South Wales
Hence this 
Corbyn’s performance was lamentably bad. He won 1 new seat. No opposition leader in modern history has won so few. Even when they were net down they managed a few gains. Eg Michael Foot won 4.
In many places, the Conservative vote wasn’t up by loads (with some exceptions). But the Labour vote fell dramatically. They didn’t come out for Corbyn, as they did just two years ago. For example, Wrexham.
Same story in Don Valley, in Birmingham Northfield, Dagenham...
Indeed the Conservative overall vote share is only a percentage point or so higher than 2017. They’ve won scores more seats because the Labour vote is down 9 points. 2019 is (largely but not exclusively) a story of Labour decline rather than a profound Conservative surge.
The rout in non-large city Britain for Labour is nearly total. For example, Labour no longer has any MPs in Cumbria or Staffordshire. It is largely the party of the English cities.
Basically, Labour is the Democratic Party, without even winning the popular vote.
Basically, Labour is the Democratic Party, without even winning the popular vote.
The Tories have used Brexit to reinsert themselves into the game in large parts of the north and midlands in which since Thatcher they were absent. Indeed this victory is largely the undoing of her toxic legacy in these places.
Indeed, the worry for Labour has to be that Brexit (and Labour’s perceived betrayal of it) has made they, not the Tories toxic in scores of seats in what we once called their heartlands.
People said an election wouldn’t solve anything. It has. Brexit will happen. It will have added democratic legitimacy. The issue, for England and Wales, is probably dead.
But it is still a live matter in Scotland and NI. This morning the union looks extremely vulnerable.
But it is still a live matter in Scotland and NI. This morning the union looks extremely vulnerable.
Scotland has- once again- voted in a dramatically different fashion to England. The SNP are dominant once again. Boris Johnson said there would be no IndyRef2. That will be hard to stop. I suspect Scotland, not Brexit stage 2, will be the defining issue of his premiership.
The politics of Northern Ireland too will be fissiparous. NI has tonight elected more nationalist MPs than unionist (joining Scotland). The DUP is a wounded animal and now irrelevant at Westminster. Much of NI will have a deal imposed on them they don’t want.
Going to bed now for a bit. Long old night.
Two years ago, I wrote a book about Labour, Left for Dead, based around the decline of Labour in its traditional areas, like my home seat of Birmingham Northfield. This was its final paragraph.
The Tories won Northfield last night.
Two years ago, I wrote a book about Labour, Left for Dead, based around the decline of Labour in its traditional areas, like my home seat of Birmingham Northfield. This was its final paragraph.
The Tories won Northfield last night.
