Thread by @shaunjlawson

THREAD: Tactical voting. Unfortunately, the UK has an absurdly disproportionate, unfair voting system which continually penalises progressive candidates. To defeat it, the electorate MUST be smart. This thread is for everyone who wants the Tories out: every single person.

The data I'm using is based on YouGov's MRP, released last night. But don't panic: I'm not treating it as sacrosanct. This thread will give advice if you live in certain constituencies where a wasted vote could help elect a Tory. In those cases, please heed it.

General advice is to vote Labour... EXCEPT in the following cases, where voting Labour will only help the Tories.

1. If you live in the following areas, vote Lib Dem:

Cheadle

Cheltenham

Esher and Walton

Guildford

Hazel Grove

Lewes

South Cambridgeshire

St Ives

(cont)

Sutton and Cheam

Thornbury and Yate

Totnes

Wantage

Wells

Winchester

Brecon and Radnorshire

There is one constituency I've not mentioned in that list: Cities of London and Westminster, where Chuka Umunna is running 2nd. Very reluctantly, my advice is to vote for him (the LD lead over Labour is 7 points there according to YouGov).

*washes mouth out with soap and water*

2. Then there's a whole list of long shot seats - where your vote is unlikely to be decisive, but you're not helping anyone by choosing Labour over the Lib Dems. That long list is as follows:

Bath (safe LD seat)
Carshalton and Wallington (safe LD seat)
Chelmsford

(cont)

Chelsea and Fulham

Chesham and Amersham

Eastleigh

Epsom and Ewell

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Henley

Hitchin and Harpenden

Horsham

Kingston and Surbiton

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Mid Sussex

Mole Valley

Newbury

Newton Abbot

North Cornwall

North Devon

(cont)

North Norfolk

North Wiltshire

Oxford West and Abingdon

Richmond Park (CRITICAL that you vote Lib Dem here)

Romsey and Southampton North

Solihull

South East Cambridgeshire

South West Surrey

St Albans (Lib Dem vote CRITICAL here)

Taunton and Deane

The Cotswolds

(cont)

Westmorland and Lonsdale (LD vote CRITICAL here)

Wimbledon

Witney

Woking

Wokingham (LD vote CRITICAL here)

Yeovil

In fact, several of these should be in the first list, ie. where voting Lib Dem is VERY important. These are:

Richmond Park

St Albans

Westmorland and Lonsdale

Wokingham

In all other cases in England except Caroline Lucas' Brighton Pavilion, you should vote Labour.

In Wales, if you live in Ceredigion, it is probably advisable to choose Plaid Cymru over Labour.

3. Then, there's Scotland. Where voting Labour in a Tory-SNP marginal is NOT a smart move. In the following places, you should vote SNP:

Aberdeen South
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Central Ayrshire

(cont)

Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh South West
Falkirk
Gordon
Lanark and Hamilton East
Moray
Ochill and South Perthshire
Perth and North Perthshire
Stirling
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

In listing all these Scottish seats above, I want to emphasise something. And it's important.

There's two numbers to look out for on Thursday night. Labour's seat count and the SNP's seat count. They need to total 310 or more for us to be in business.

Any wasted votes in any of the seats I've listed - in all of which, Labour are nowhere - reduces the chances of the total reaching 310. There is, I should add, no chance whatsoever of a Labour majority; not given the situation in Scotland and parts of the midlands.

4. However, the following is equally important. It's for anyone thinking of voting Lib Dem, Green or PC in constituencies where doing so will only help the Hard or even No Deal Brexit-backing Tories. If you want Remain, DON'T DO IT. Instead, vote Labour in the following:

Altrincham and Sale West
Ashfield
Aylesbury
Banbury
Barrow and Furness
Basingstoke
Bassetlaw
Batley and Spen
Bedford
Birmingham Erdington
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Blyth Valley
Bolsover
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Bromley and Chistlehurst

(cont)

Broxtowe
Burnley
Bury North
Bury South
Calder Valley
Camborne and Redruth
Canterbury
Chesterfield
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Colchester
Colne Valley
Congleton
Copeland
Corby
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central

(cont)

Croydon South
Dagenham and Rainham
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Doncaster Central
Dudley North
East Worthing and Shoreham
Ellesmere Port and Neston
Eltham
Enfield North
Enfield Southgate
Erith and Thamesmead
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Gedling
Great Grimsby

(cont)

Halifax
Harrow East
Hartlepool
Hastings and Rye
Hemsworth
Hendon
Heywood and Middleton
High Peak
Hyndburn
Ipswich
Keighley
Kensington
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Leigh
Lincoln
Loughborough
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Newcastle-under-Lyme

(cont)

North West Durham
Northampton North
Norwich North
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
Portsmouth South
Pudsey
Putney
Reading East
Reading West
Redcar
Rother Valley
Rotherham
Rushcliffe
Scunthorpe
Sedgefield

(cont)

Shipley
Shrewsbury and Atcham
South Swindon
Southampton Itchen
Southport
Stalybridge and Hyde
Stevenage
Stockton North
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Truro and Falmouth
Tynemouth
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Wakefield
Walsall South

(cont)

Wansbeck
Warrington North
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Watford
Weaver Vale
Welwyn Hatfield
West Bromwich East
West Bromwich West
Wirral South
Wirral West
Wolverhampton South West
Worcester
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Wycombe
York Outer

That's England covered. If I've not mentioned your constituency, the advice is simple: VOTE LABOUR.

For clarity, I've included all constituencies where either the gap is 10 points or below; or the Lib Dems, miles behind in 3rd, make up the difference (eg. Southport/York Outer).

As for Wales: if you're thinking of voting PC or LD in some places, it's wiser to vote Labour, or you risk letting the Tory in. These places:

Ynys Mon
Delyn
Alyn and Deeside
Wrexham
Gower
Monmouth
Newport East
Newport West
Aberconwy
Clwyd West
Vale of Clwyd
Clwyd South

(cont)

Preseli Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Bridgend
Vale of Glamorgan

And that's it! Reminder: if your constituency isn't listed, your task is straightforward. Vote Labour, help us bring it home and #GTTO.

I've looked at all the numbers - and I absolutely believe that a Labour government backed by the SNP is achievable. But only if we all give it everything we've got - and wherever necessary, vote smart. Vote tactically.

You can find all the data here: d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…

One thing jumps out from the YouGov data. The UK's cultural divide is getting bigger and bigger. Labour in danger in many hitherto safe as houses working class northern and midlands seats (eg. Bolsover); but consolidating in new places like Kensington or especially Canterbury.

This mirrors what's happened in the US - where the rust belt has turned away from the Democrats, while suburban areas across the country and especially the south-west turns towards it.

In the UK, only Labour can heal that divide.

And for anyone working class thinking of voting either Tory or for the Brexit Party: give yourselves a huge shake and watch this for some much needed truth bullets:

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1204372267834183684

PS. One seat to add: if you live in East Devon, Claire Wright has a huge chance of unseating the Tories there for the first time since 1835. A vote for any other party is a wasted vote. Vote for her and send Simon Jupp packing.