Many are so, understandably, focussed on Labour’s problems right now they’re missing the deep structural problems the Torries are storing up for themselves electorally.
This may seem strange given Johnson’s “stonking” majority but if you look closer you can see problems ahead...
This may seem strange given Johnson’s “stonking” majority but if you look closer you can see problems ahead...
2/
I come from a region, family & work-sector that I used to meet only Tories - but the decline in self identification as Conservative in all 3 groups by the under 35s is amazing. A hard Brexit & a non Corbynite Labour leader will mean next election even fewer u35 Tory votes...
I come from a region, family & work-sector that I used to meet only Tories - but the decline in self identification as Conservative in all 3 groups by the under 35s is amazing. A hard Brexit & a non Corbynite Labour leader will mean next election even fewer u35 Tory votes...
3/
But the real decline of “youth” vote is housing related. Property ownership is the great Tory vote generator-but as housing ownership plummets to 50% & less & age of 1st house purchase rises ever higher voting for an aged Rentier party makes no sense for u35s-look at London..
But the real decline of “youth” vote is housing related. Property ownership is the great Tory vote generator-but as housing ownership plummets to 50% & less & age of 1st house purchase rises ever higher voting for an aged Rentier party makes no sense for u35s-look at London..
4/
Media often make a big play about “liberal remainer London” this has some truth to it. But the real factor is that even relatively prosperous graduates are renting well into 30s-40s. This challenges the whole concept of mature voters switching to the wealth party.....
Media often make a big play about “liberal remainer London” this has some truth to it. But the real factor is that even relatively prosperous graduates are renting well into 30s-40s. This challenges the whole concept of mature voters switching to the wealth party.....
5/
Even if Brexit is lanced as a drag on UK politics - unlikely - the Tories are not going to win back internationalists, ethnic minorities & strong pro Europeans by harking on about Brexit nationalism - that’s if Brexit is not a disaster...
Even if Brexit is lanced as a drag on UK politics - unlikely - the Tories are not going to win back internationalists, ethnic minorities & strong pro Europeans by harking on about Brexit nationalism - that’s if Brexit is not a disaster...
6/
So where are the new Tory voters going to come from - the North? Will Northern working class really vote vote Tory after hard Brexit? Nothing except some sort of post Brexit economic rebirth suggests they will - but where is the money coming for that?
So where are the new Tory voters going to come from - the North? Will Northern working class really vote vote Tory after hard Brexit? Nothing except some sort of post Brexit economic rebirth suggests they will - but where is the money coming for that?
7/
The next election will be fought on success of Brexit.
If Labour have a leader that can pick apart the failure(s) of Brexit to deliver “sunlit uplands” to northerners but simultaneously doesn’t scare the southern vote like Corbyn did they have a real chance.
The next election will be fought on success of Brexit.
If Labour have a leader that can pick apart the failure(s) of Brexit to deliver “sunlit uplands” to northerners but simultaneously doesn’t scare the southern vote like Corbyn did they have a real chance.
8/
So next Labour leader must be Brexit critic but from a competency perspective.
& the Tories? they’ll attempt to maximize the older generation & nationalist vote & post Brexit that will be thin gruel.
The country will either hate Brexit by then or want to forget it. Forever.
So next Labour leader must be Brexit critic but from a competency perspective.
& the Tories? they’ll attempt to maximize the older generation & nationalist vote & post Brexit that will be thin gruel.
The country will either hate Brexit by then or want to forget it. Forever.
