If the 2019 election had been decided by people of working age - UK would now have a Labour majority government.
Conservatives didn’t win workers in Northern towns so much as won pensioners.
The UK divide isn’t north v south. It’s old v young. But it’s impolite to discuss this.
Conservatives didn’t win workers in Northern towns so much as won pensioners.
The UK divide isn’t north v south. It’s old v young. But it’s impolite to discuss this.
2/
Don’t get me wrong. There are many fine older people, they’re are older people more leftwing than me - but the media obsession with north v south is ridiculous when geographical difference is less than the age difference.
Don’t get me wrong. There are many fine older people, they’re are older people more leftwing than me - but the media obsession with north v south is ridiculous when geographical difference is less than the age difference.
3/
Myth 1:
“workers don’t vote for higher taxes”
They do. They clearly just have.
It’s pensioners that rejected Labour not workers.
Myth 2:
“Prosperous people don’t vote labour” - they just did with high numbers of ABs voting labour - they were outvoted - by pensioners.
Myth 1:
“workers don’t vote for higher taxes”
They do. They clearly just have.
It’s pensioners that rejected Labour not workers.
Myth 2:
“Prosperous people don’t vote labour” - they just did with high numbers of ABs voting labour - they were outvoted - by pensioners.
4/
Suddenly I realise how smart Tories were. Twitter didn’t matter. Tories & Brexit lost that already by 2017.
The Daily Express matters. Get pensioners to vote for nostalgic nationalism & you don’t need a majority of working population as older voters can out vote them.
Suddenly I realise how smart Tories were. Twitter didn’t matter. Tories & Brexit lost that already by 2017.
The Daily Express matters. Get pensioners to vote for nostalgic nationalism & you don’t need a majority of working population as older voters can out vote them.
5/
Acc to ONS 18% of UK are 65+
The 2016 Leave & 2019 Tory vote was almost 70% in this age.
In other words Brexit/Tories were already a quarter way to a majority in both cases just with pensioners.
In Johnson’s case he could’ve got less than 25% working pop & still have won...
Acc to ONS 18% of UK are 65+
The 2016 Leave & 2019 Tory vote was almost 70% in this age.
In other words Brexit/Tories were already a quarter way to a majority in both cases just with pensioners.
In Johnson’s case he could’ve got less than 25% working pop & still have won...
6/
Which leads to next bombshell - Brexit doesn’t need to be a success for workers in order for Tories to be reelected.
He simply needs to hold pensioners’ votes. Following this logic Johnson can declare Brexit victory bonus with a pension rate raise & hes almost home in 2024.
Which leads to next bombshell - Brexit doesn’t need to be a success for workers in order for Tories to be reelected.
He simply needs to hold pensioners’ votes. Following this logic Johnson can declare Brexit victory bonus with a pension rate raise & hes almost home in 2024.
7/
Now to Labour.
Any attempt to win back “Northern workers” might thus be futile.
As while some Northerners obviously voted Tory - how many of those are actually pensioners not workers?
That Labour retained Northern cities suggests workers less of an issue than media make out.
Now to Labour.
Any attempt to win back “Northern workers” might thus be futile.
As while some Northerners obviously voted Tory - how many of those are actually pensioners not workers?
That Labour retained Northern cities suggests workers less of an issue than media make out.
8/
I’ve nothing against older people being more conservative - it’s a natural & in someways beneficial balance to the verve of youth.
Problem is Brexit is radical - & those least affected by, indeed protected from, it are enabling it against wishes of those most affected by it.
I’ve nothing against older people being more conservative - it’s a natural & in someways beneficial balance to the verve of youth.
Problem is Brexit is radical - & those least affected by, indeed protected from, it are enabling it against wishes of those most affected by it.
9/
Not only that but Torries will no doubt protect retirees pensions, houses etc even as they remove workers/environment rights.
With pensioner vote - Johnson needs only 25% of working population vote to drive this forward.
This is unique in history.
It won’t end well.
/ends
Not only that but Torries will no doubt protect retirees pensions, houses etc even as they remove workers/environment rights.
With pensioner vote - Johnson needs only 25% of working population vote to drive this forward.
This is unique in history.
It won’t end well.
/ends
ADDENDUM
One thing also overlooked. While teenagers/20s tend to Labour still a good fifth vote Tory.
What’s incredible about 2019 election is almost utter collapse in over 70 Labour vote to just 14%.
The demographic that relies the most on public spending shunned Labour.
One thing also overlooked. While teenagers/20s tend to Labour still a good fifth vote Tory.
What’s incredible about 2019 election is almost utter collapse in over 70 Labour vote to just 14%.
The demographic that relies the most on public spending shunned Labour.
1/
It seems illogical - why would the demographic most needing public spending utterly disavow the party of public spending?
The answer is clear: pensioners no longer believe they will pay any costs if economy stumbles. Indeed many pensioners actually benefit from austerity..
It seems illogical - why would the demographic most needing public spending utterly disavow the party of public spending?
The answer is clear: pensioners no longer believe they will pay any costs if economy stumbles. Indeed many pensioners actually benefit from austerity..
12/
...for an over 60 during Cameron years pensions were triple locked & interest rates falls lead to house price boom even as the economy tanked & wages slashed.
The Brexit vote & now Johnson victory cane from over 65s willing to take a punt secure they won’t pay the price...
...for an over 60 during Cameron years pensions were triple locked & interest rates falls lead to house price boom even as the economy tanked & wages slashed.
The Brexit vote & now Johnson victory cane from over 65s willing to take a punt secure they won’t pay the price...
13/
So what happened in 2017 - May looked at social care costs & massive housing wealth & suggested the obvious - within hours her campaign blew up never to recover.
Johnson didn’t make the same mistake.
Whatever the politics of this clearly the economics is unsustainable.
So what happened in 2017 - May looked at social care costs & massive housing wealth & suggested the obvious - within hours her campaign blew up never to recover.
Johnson didn’t make the same mistake.
Whatever the politics of this clearly the economics is unsustainable.
14/
So while nostalgia nationalism surely played a part - the decision by pensioners reliant on public spending to not vote Labour can be explained logically.
Oh & what was the other public spending pledge the Tories made a big deal of? Crime.
Johnson learnt the 2017 lesson.
So while nostalgia nationalism surely played a part - the decision by pensioners reliant on public spending to not vote Labour can be explained logically.
Oh & what was the other public spending pledge the Tories made a big deal of? Crime.
Johnson learnt the 2017 lesson.
