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There are now logically only 2 paths to a Labour victory over next 5 years

1. Either by exposing the ridiculous pointlessness of a Johnson soft Brexit

Or

2. By exposing the vicious destructive cost of a Johnson hard Brexit

Either way means next leader can only be a remainer.
2/
From the responses its clear people have not thought this thru.

An opposition whether they have a policy to rejoin or not (likely not) simply cannot politically critique Johmson's Brexit from a Brexit POV.

It wont work. It wouldn't be credible.
It would pre-program defeat.
3/
Only way a pro Brexit Labour leader makes any sense is if you believe that not only will Brexit be reasonably good for UK, but also beneficial for working class Labour supporters.

Otherwise you'd repeat same mistake that got us into this mess.
You cant out Brexit the Tories.
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More from @nicktolhurst see all

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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
If the 2019 election had been decided by people of working age - UK would now have a Labour majority government.

Conservatives didn’t win workers in Northern towns so much as won pensioners.

The UK divide isn’t north v south. It’s old v young. But it’s impolite to discuss this.
2/
Don’t get me wrong. There are many fine older people, they’re are older people more leftwing than me - but the media obsession with north v south is ridiculous when geographical difference is less than the age difference.
3/
Myth 1:
“workers don’t vote for higher taxes”

They do. They clearly just have.
It’s pensioners that rejected Labour not workers.

Myth 2:
“Prosperous people don’t vote labour” - they just did with high numbers of ABs voting labour - they were outvoted - by pensioners.
Read 14 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
Many are so, understandably, focussed on Labour’s problems right now they’re missing the deep structural problems the Torries are storing up for themselves electorally.

This may seem strange given Johnson’s “stonking” majority but if you look closer you can see problems ahead...
2/
I come from a region, family & work-sector that I used to meet only Tories - but the decline in self identification as Conservative in all 3 groups by the under 35s is amazing. A hard Brexit & a non Corbynite Labour leader will mean next election even fewer u35 Tory votes...
3/
But the real decline of “youth” vote is housing related. Property ownership is the great Tory vote generator-but as housing ownership plummets to 50% & less & age of 1st house purchase rises ever higher voting for an aged Rentier party makes no sense for u35s-look at London..
Read 8 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
I wasn’t going to but the “Flint & co” idiocy has got to stopped.

Apparently Labour’s big mistake was “Remainers” who stopped Northern voters voting Labour.

So let’s replay what would have happened.

Labour start election without commitment to 2nd referendum...
2/
So do the Brexit party stand down in Labour held seats? No. They’ve even less incentive now. They stand to ensure “Clean Brexit”.

Of course some Labour Leavers might drift back. But what happens to Northern Labour/LibDem/Green remainers - they don’t tactically vote Labour...
3/
People who argue a pro Brexit stance would’ve saved Labour are forced to argue even without the tactical votes from other parties Labour would’ve gained enough extra Leave votes to beat the Tories.

Problem is even in most Leave seats Labour activists/voters are Remainers...
Read 6 tweets

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Napmug
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tony nog #FBPE
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Virtually every panel from #newsnight to #bbcqt has been dominated by Tory Brexiters & born again Labour "we must deliver #brexit" ones

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Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
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The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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