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This will confuse you...

If we continue our dismal climate policy efforts from 2030 to 2100, we are set for 2.7°C-2.9°C in 2100 (but will keep rising after 2100).

Just imagine if we tried to reduce emissions: 2.5°C is no problem, 2°C maybe, ...

1/
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
How can this be the case, when the news is full of dire consequences?

This is because climate impacts are often projected (& communicated) with a scenario call RCP8.5, which is deliberately structured to use fossil fuels & has *no* climate policy until 2100.

2/
The new incarnation of RCP8.5 is called SSP5-85, and SSP5 is actually named "Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway"

If you consider a world where some countries do move away from fossil fuels & some countries even have climate policy, then emissions are much lower!

3/
If you project the @IEA baselines, critiqued by some as being fossil fuel intensive & high, through to 2100, then that leads to 2.7-2.9°C warming according to @hausfath & @jritch. Rather similar to the values from @JoeriRogelj from 2016. nature.com/articles/natur…

4/
But, if we are set for 3°C (I will round it up), then what does it take to get to 2.5°C or 2°C.

A quick back of the envelope, shows that 0.1°C is ~220GtCO₂. Do some rounding, 0.5°C is 1000GtCO₂ & 1°C is 2000GtCO₂. Each 0.5°C is a big step...

5/
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
This is why I said "Keeping global warming below 2°C is hard, but 2.5°C is a walk in the park!" (A little bit cheeky).

I would say equally, it is going to be bloody hard to get 4°C of warming, you have to burn a lot of carbon!

6/
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
Another issue is that CO₂ emissions need to go to zero to stop the temperature increasing further.

While 2.5°C may be "easy" by 2100, to keep temperature at 2.5°C is hard as emissions must be zero. The zero part could be tricky...

7/
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
If you think zero emissions is "easy", go have a read of the paper by @SteveDavisUCI and colleagues, on the hard-to-mitigate sectors.

science.sciencemag.org/content/360/63…

8/
While getting to zero may be easier in some countries (US, EU, etc), it is going to be harder in others, where they have young coal fleets, rapidly growing economies, & development concerns.

This figure shows what India says its emissions will do!

9/
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…
This last tweets, are in a nutshell, why I think 2°C is out of reach, but I actually think 2.5°C is quite achievable even in the messy world we live in today...

10/
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
The fact we are heading for 3°C & not 4°C is a great news story, & one that should be communicated a lot more and a lot stronger.

Now we are on for 3°C, let's shift up to 2.5°C, then 2°C, etc...

/end
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
BONUS: Ok, many questions on feedbacks:
1. Models do include feedbacks
2. There *could* be *additional* feedbacks not included or poorly modelled, but that is not a given
3. If there are nasty feedbacks we missed, yes, higher °C
4. Science is onto it
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Who thinks climate impacts in a 3-5°C world are zero? ...or a 1°C world (today)?

This is what the SSPs assume, by design.

To believe #RCP85 you need
* World that prioritises fossil fuels
* Zero climate policy to 2100
* Zero climate impacts to 2100

1/
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The same is true for low-mitigation pathways, even when climate policy is assumed.

RCP1.9 or RCP2.6 (1.5°C or 2°C) generally use loads of Bioenergy with CCS, but it is assumed that a 2°C world has no climate impacts on that bioenergy (or food & agriculture, or forestry).

2/
This is a methodological design choice. The SSPs are meant to be 'modular' & have climate policies & climate impacts added.

In practice, mitigation pathways don't consider feedbacks from climate impacts (in the vast majority of studies).

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
How does the 0.6% projected growth in CO₂ emissions for 2019 look against trends of the last decade?
* GDP growth was 0.5% points lower
* CO₂/GDP improved 0.1% points lower
* CO₂ growth was 0.6% points lower

➡️Weaker GDP growth explains slower emissions growth in 2019

1/
I was inspired to make this figure after @MLiebreich predicted CO₂ would fall in 2019


In February, I made a GDP based projection: a 2019 decline in emissions would require an unprecedented drop in CO₂/GDP (green, far right)

2/
Through 2019, the IMF has constantly revised down GDP estimates, 3.5%, then 3.3%, and now 3%. We also updated our emissions data!

I redid the projection in June (GDP growth 3.3%), a decline in 2019 was still looking unlikely.

3/
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

Global fossil CO₂ emissions set to grow a slow 0.6% in 2019 [range: -0.2% to +1.5%] with robust growth in oil & natural gas, but a slight decline in coal.

#CarbonBudget #COP25 #ClimateAction globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…

1/
We project global coal, oil, & gas emissions for 2019
* Natural gas up 2.6% [+1.3% to +3.9%], driving >50% of growth since 2012
* Oil up 0.9% [+1.3% to +3.9%] continuing trends
* Coal down -0.9% [-2.0% to +0.2%] continuing its woes
#CarbonBudget #COP25 rdcu.be/bYf1O

2/
By region
* China +2.6% [+0.7% to +4.4%], GDP vs stimulus
* USA -1.7% [-3.7% to +0.3%], coal -10%
* EU28 -1.7% [-3.4% to +0.1%], coal -10%
* India +1.8% [+0.7% to +3.7%], big monsoon, weak economy
* Others +0.5% [-0.8% to +1.8%], weak economy
#COP25 rdcu.be/bYf1O

3/
Read 17 tweets

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Richard Gaisford
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A week of @ExtinctionR protests begins today across the UK - in Leeds, Cardiff, Glasgow, London and here in Bristol, where they will occupy a city centre bridge. The aim to get Govt to change #climate policy, but police are concerned about local short term effects. More @GMB
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Joseph Curtin
@jmcurtin
1. Thread:

Riots in France, 2nd rejection of carbon tax in Washington State, and u-turns in Germany and Ireland, all since Oct:

Are carbon taxes are dead, and we should look to plan B on climate?

My piece here: thetimes.co.uk/edition/irelan…

Or: josephcurtin.com/single-post/20…
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3. Even the orange elephant in the room was using these developments to stick the knife in:
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