How does the 0.6% projected growth in CO₂ emissions for 2019 look against trends of the last decade?
* GDP growth was 0.5% points lower
* CO₂/GDP improved 0.1% points lower
* CO₂ growth was 0.6% points lower
➡️Weaker GDP growth explains slower emissions growth in 2019
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* GDP growth was 0.5% points lower
* CO₂/GDP improved 0.1% points lower
* CO₂ growth was 0.6% points lower
➡️Weaker GDP growth explains slower emissions growth in 2019
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I was inspired to make this figure after @MLiebreich predicted CO₂ would fall in 2019
In February, I made a GDP based projection: a 2019 decline in emissions would require an unprecedented drop in CO₂/GDP (green, far right)
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In February, I made a GDP based projection: a 2019 decline in emissions would require an unprecedented drop in CO₂/GDP (green, far right)
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Through 2019, the IMF has constantly revised down GDP estimates, 3.5%, then 3.3%, and now 3%. We also updated our emissions data!
I redid the projection in June (GDP growth 3.3%), a decline in 2019 was still looking unlikely.
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I redid the projection in June (GDP growth 3.3%), a decline in 2019 was still looking unlikely.
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Now with GDP growth projected to be 3%, our December projection (using monthly data) suggests a 0.6% increase in CO₂ emissions
This means CO₂/GDP (green) declined in line with 10 year average (very similar for a 5 year average)
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This means CO₂/GDP (green) declined in line with 10 year average (very similar for a 5 year average)
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Perhaps @MLiebreich will be wrong on his 2019 projection (noting our projection does have a likely range of -0.2% to 1.5%, so a decline is not completely off the cards).
For @MLiebreich to be right, we need either weak GDP or a big jump in CO₂/GDP...
5/5
For @MLiebreich to be right, we need either weak GDP or a big jump in CO₂/GDP...
5/5
