#CulturalHeritage is addressed in #SR15 with a focus on #tourism, in its chapter 3 (impacts on natural and human systems):
ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/c…
ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/c…
The implications of climate change for the global tourism sector are far-reaching
Since AR5, observed impacts on tourism markets and destination communities continue to be not well analysed,
despite the many analogue conditions (e.g., heatwaves, major hurricanes, wild fires, reduced snow pack, coastal erosion and coral reef bleaching) that are anticipated to occur more frequently with climate change.
The tourism sector is also affected by climate-induced changes in environmental assets critical for tourism, including biodiversity, beaches, glaciers and other features important for environmental and cultural heritage.
A global analysis of sea level rise risk to 720 @UNESCO Cultural World Heritage sites projected that about 47 sites might be affected under today's 1°C of warming, with this number increasing to 110 and 136 sites under 2°C and 3°C, respectively
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Similar risks to vast worldwide coastal tourism infrastructure and beach assets remain unquantified for most major tourism destinations and small island
developing states that economically depend on coastal tourism.
developing states that economically depend on coastal tourism.
One exception is the projection that an eventual 1 m SLR could partially or fully inundate 29% of 900 coastal resorts in 19 Caribbean countries, with a substantially higher proportion (49–60%) vulnerable to associated coastal erosion.
For tourism, changing weather patterns, extreme weather and climate events, and sea level rise are affecting
many – but not all – global tourism investments, as well as
environmental and cultural destination assets,
many – but not all – global tourism investments, as well as
environmental and cultural destination assets,
with "last chance to see" tourism markets developing based on observed impacts on environmental and cultural heritage, indicating a transition from undetectable to moderate risk between 0°C and 1.5°C of global warming above 1850-1900.
Based on limited analyses, risks to the tourism sector are projected to be larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C, with impacts on climate-sensitive sun, beach and snow sports tourism markets being greatest.
The degradation or loss of coral reef systems is expected to increase the risks to coastal tourism in subtropical and tropical regions. A transition in risk from moderate to high levels of added risk from climate change is projcted to occur between 1.5°C and 3°C
#CulturalHeritage is addressed in several chapters of #SRCCL, with different perspectives
ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL
ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL
Chapter 1 (Framing) looks at land use governance options, including rights-based instruments and customary norms which deal with the equitable and fair management of land resources for all people.
These instruments emphasise the rights in particular of indigenous peoples and local communities, including for example, recognition of the rights embedded in the access to, and use of, common land.
Common land includes situations without legal ownership (e.g., hunter-gathering communities), where the legal ownership is distinct from usage rights (e.g. Mediterranean transhumance grazing systems), or mixed ownership-common grazing systems (e.g. Scotland).
A lack of formal (legal) ownership has often led to the loss of access rights to land, where these rights were also not formally enshrined in law, which especially effects indigenous communities, for example, deforestation in the Amazon basin.
Overcoming the constraints associated with common-pool resources (forestry, fisheries, water) are often of economic and institutional nature.
Other examples of rights-based instruments include the protection of heritage sites, sacred sites and peace parks
#SRCCL also refers to @FAOclimate Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Sites
fao.org/giahs/backgrou…
fao.org/giahs/backgrou…
#SRCCL Chapter 2 (desertification) develops the example of the Siwa oasis (Egypt), an in situ repository of plant genetic resources,
especially of uniquely adapted varieties of date palm, olive and secondary crops that are highly esteemed for their quality and continue to play a significant role in rural livelihoods and diets
The population growth in Siwa is leading rapid agricultural expansion and land reclamation.
The Siwan farmers are converting the surrounding desert into reclaimed land by applying their old inherited traditional practices. Yet, agricultural expansion in the oasis mainly depends on non renewable groundwaters.
Soil salinisation and vegetation loss have been accelerating since 2000
More generally, there is high confidence that many oases of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula are vulnerable to climate change.
While the impacts of recent climate change are difficult to separate from the consequences of other change processes, it is likely that water resources have already declined in many places
and the suitability of the local climate for many crops, especially perennial crops, has already decreased.
This decline of water resources and thermal suitability of oasis locations for traditional crops is very likely to continue throughout the 21st century.
In the coming years, the people living in oasis regions across the world will face challenges due to increasing impacts of global environmental change
Hence, efforts to increase their adaptive capacity to climate change can facilitate the sustainable development of oasis regions globally
This will concern particularly addressing the trade-offs between environmental restoration and agricultural livelihoods
Ultimately, sustainability in oasis regions will depend on policies integrating the provision of ecosystem services and social and human welfare needs
Forest area expansion could benefit recreation and health, preservation of cultural heritage and local values and knowledge, livelihood support (via reduced resource conflicts, restoration of local resources).
These social benefits could be most successfully achieved if local communities’ concerns are considered. However, these co-benefits have rarely been assessed due to a lack of suitable frameworks and evaluation tools.
Industrial forest management can be in conflict with needs of forest-dependent people and community based forest management over access to natural resources and/or loss of customary rights over land use .
A common result is outmigration from rural areas and diminishing local uses of ecosystems.
Policies promoting large-scale tree plantations gain if these are reappraised in view of potential co-benefits with several ecosystem services and local societies
Loss of cultural heritage is also briefly mentioned in #SRCCL Chapter 4 in relationship to land degradation.
Land degradation and climate change act as threat multipliers for already precarious livelihoods, leaving them highly sensitive to extreme climatic events, with consequences such as poverty and food insecurity,
and in some cases migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage.
Finally, #SROCC chapter 7 (risk management) provides an summary overview of climate change effects on cultural heritage (Table 7.1)
@ICOMOS The Siwan farmers are converting the surrounding desert into reclaimed land by applying their old inherited traditional practices. Yet, agricultural expansion in the oasis mainly depends on non renewable groundwaters.
Soil salinisation and vegetation loss have been accelerating since 2000
More generally, there is high confidence that many oases of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula are vulnerable to climate change.
While the impacts of recent climate change are difficult to separate from the consequences of other change processes, it is likely that water resources have already declined in many places
and the suitability of the local climate for many crops, especially perennial crops, has already decreased.
This decline of water resources and thermal suitability of oasis locations for traditional crops is very likely to continue throughout the 21st century.
In the coming years, the people living in oasis regions across the world will face challenges due to increasing impacts of global environmental change
Hence, efforts to increase their adaptive capacity to climate change can facilitate the sustainable development of oasis regions globally
This will concern particularly addressing the trade-offs between environmental restoration and agricultural livelihoods
Ultimately, sustainability in oasis regions will depend on policies integrating the provision of ecosystem services and social and human welfare needs
Forest area expansion could benefit recreation and health, preservation of cultural heritage and local values and knowledge, livelihood support (via reduced resource conflicts, restoration of local resources).
These social benefits could be most successfully achieved if local communities’ concerns are considered. However, these co-benefits have rarely been assessed due to a lack of suitable frameworks and evaluation tools.
Industrial forest management can be in conflict with needs of forest-dependent people and community based forest management over access to natural resources and/or loss of customary rights over land use .
A common result is outmigration from rural areas and diminishing local uses of ecosystems.
Policies promoting large-scale tree plantations gain if these are reappraised in view of potential co-benefits with several ecosystem services and local societies
Loss of cultural heritage is also briefly mentioned in #SRCCL Chapter 4 in relationship to land degradation.
Land degradation and climate change act as threat multipliers for already precarious livelihoods, leaving them highly sensitive to extreme climatic events, with consequences such as poverty and food insecurity,
and in some cases migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage.
Finally, #SROCC chapter 7 (risk management) provides an summary overview of climate change effects on cultural heritage (Table 7.1)
Finally, #SROCC has multiple references to #CulturalHeritage, in relation with the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate.
The Cross-Chapter Box on Low Lying Islands and Coss stresses that they host around 11% of the global population, generate about 14% of the global Gross Domestic Product and comprise many world cultural heritage sites.
Chapter 1 (Framing) introduces key concepts of risk, adaptation, resilience and transformation (Cross-Chapter Box 2).
Residual risk :
This report addresses loss and damage in relation to snow onset processes, including ocean changes and sea level rise, glacier retreat, and polar cryosphere changes, as well as rapid onset hazards such as tropical cyclones.
This report addresses loss and damage in relation to snow onset processes, including ocean changes and sea level rise, glacier retreat, and polar cryosphere changes, as well as rapid onset hazards such as tropical cyclones.
The assessment encompasses non-economic losses, including the impacts on intrinsic and spiritual attributes with which high mountain societies value their landscapes;
(section 2.3.5); the interconnected relationship with, and reliance upon, the land, water and ice for culture, livelihoods and wellbeing in the Arctic (Section 3.4.3.3);
and cultural heritage and displacement addressed in the Cross-Chapter Box on low-lying islands and coasts (Cross-Chapter Box 9).
Chapter 2 (high mountains) highlights conservation strategies that aim at preserving natural and cultural heritage including sites that contain glaciers, as means to further support efforts towards the promotion of knowledge, collective cultural memory and climate policy.
Chapter 4 (sea level) explores the dimension of social values at stake with rising sea level.
Social values refer to what people consider of critical importance about the places in which they live, and range from material to immaterial things (assets, beliefs, etc).
Consideration of social values offers an opportunity
to address a wider perspective on impacts on human systems, for example, complementary to quantitative assessments of health impacts.
to address a wider perspective on impacts on human systems, for example, complementary to quantitative assessments of health impacts.
This also encompasses immaterial dimensions, such as
threats to cultural heritage, socialising activities, integration of marginalised groups and cultural
ecosystem services,
threats to cultural heritage, socialising activities, integration of marginalised groups and cultural
ecosystem services,
and provides an opportunity to better reflect context-specificities in valuing the physical/ecological/human/cultural impacts’ importance for and distribution within a
given society.
given society.
This field of research (no detailed mention found in AR5) is just emerging due to the transdisciplinary and qualitative nature of the topic.
It refers to a 5-category framing of of social values specifically at risk from sea level rise :
health (i.e., the social determinants of survival such as
environmental and housing quality and healthy lifestyles),
environmental and housing quality and healthy lifestyles),
feeling of safety (e.g., financial and job security),
belongingness (i.e., attachment to places and people),
self-esteem (e.g., social status or pride that can be affected by coastal retreat),
and self-actualisation (i.e., people’s efforts to define their own identity).
Another emerging issue relates to social values at risk due to land submergence in low-lying islands and parts of countries and individual properties.
Recent studies also highlight the potential additional risks to social values in areas where displaced people relocate.
Example of a recent review study on cultural heritage & climate change cited in #SROCC :
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Finally, #SROCC Chapter 6 (extremes, abrupt change) provides a perspective on cultural heritage and risk management.
For instance, one section looks at retreat or rebuild options which exist after storms.
Rebuilding options can depend on whether insurance is still affordable after the event. Buyout programs, a form of ‘managed retreat’ whereby government agencies pay people affected by extreme weather events to relocate
to safer areas, gained traction in recent years
to safer areas, gained traction in recent years
as a potential solution to reduce exposure to changing storm surge and flood risk.
The decision to retreat or rebuild in situ depends, at least partially, on how communities have recovered in the past and therefore on the perceived success of a future recovery
This section flags an example of unpopular buyout programs,
due to political and jurisdictional conflicts between local, regional, and national government over land management responsibilities, lack of coordinated nation-wide adaptation plans, and clashes between
individual and community needs.
individual and community needs.
Relocation (i.e., managed retreat) is often very controversial, can incur significant political risk even when it is in principle voluntary and is rarely implemented with much success at larger scale.
In addition, managed retreats are often fraught with legal, distributional and human rights issues, as seen
from examples of recent case of resettlements, and extend to loss of cultural heritage and indigenous qualities in the case of small island states.
from examples of recent case of resettlements, and extend to loss of cultural heritage and indigenous qualities in the case of small island states.
This chapter also explores case studies of multiple hazards, compound risk and cascading impacts, including Tasmania's summer of 2015-2016 (heat, drought and fire) and the World Heritage Area.
Finally, the integrative cross-chapter box on low-lying islands and coasts includes the loss of cultural heritage in drivers of impacts and risks.
Highly context-specific territorial and societal dynamics have resulted in major changes at the coast, for instance the growing concentration of people and assets in risk prone coastal areas,
and the degradation of coastal ecosystem services such as coastal protection and healthy conditions for coastal fisheries and aquaculture.
Local drivers of exposure and vulnerability include, for example, coastal squeeze, inadequate land use planning,
changes in construction modes, sand mining and unsustainable resource extraction,
changes in construction modes, sand mining and unsustainable resource extraction,
as well as loss of Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge.
For example, the loss of Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge based practices and associated cultural heritage limits both the ability to recognise and respond to ocean and cryosphere related risk and the empowerment of local communities.
This is a brief overview of how #CulturalHeritage is mentioned in the recent @IPCC_CH #SR15 #SRCCL and #SROCC reports.
In parallel, @ICOMOS has launched in 2019 a vision paper, "Future of our pasts, engaging cultural heritage in climate action"
icomos.org/en/focus/clima…
including enhancing the connections between cultural heritage, climate change science and action.
icomos.org/en/focus/clima…
including enhancing the connections between cultural heritage, climate change science and action.
You may see in this long thread the bias of a paleoclimatologist feeling concerned about climate change, natural and cultural heritage (including the loss of climate archives) 😉
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