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Global fossil CO₂ emissions set to grow a slow 0.6% in 2019 [range: -0.2% to +1.5%] with robust growth in oil & natural gas, but a slight decline in coal.

#CarbonBudget #COP25 #ClimateAction globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…

1/
We project global coal, oil, & gas emissions for 2019
* Natural gas up 2.6% [+1.3% to +3.9%], driving >50% of growth since 2012
* Oil up 0.9% [+1.3% to +3.9%] continuing trends
* Coal down -0.9% [-2.0% to +0.2%] continuing its woes
#CarbonBudget #COP25 rdcu.be/bYf1O

2/
By region
* China +2.6% [+0.7% to +4.4%], GDP vs stimulus
* USA -1.7% [-3.7% to +0.3%], coal -10%
* EU28 -1.7% [-3.4% to +0.1%], coal -10%
* India +1.8% [+0.7% to +3.7%], big monsoon, weak economy
* Others +0.5% [-0.8% to +1.8%], weak economy
#COP25 rdcu.be/bYf1O

3/
The top six emitters in 2018 covered 67% of global emissions
* China 28%
* United States 15%
* EU28 9%
* India 7%
* Russia 5%
* Japan 3%

All countries, small & big, must mitigate

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
4/
There is a broad spread of per capita emissions, but all countries need to mitigate (albeit at different rates)
* US 3.5x global average
* EU28 & China similar level, ~40% above global average
* India less than half global average

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
5/
Global energy use is dominated by fossils
* Oil & natural gas growing on trend
* Coal showing signs of peaking, but still uncertain
* Bio & hydro growing at low rates
* Nuclear tinkering
* Wind & solar growing fast, from low levels

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
6/
Per capita energy use indicates how energy sources grow relative to population

Growth rates:
* Faster than population: natural gas, renewables
* Same as population: coal (ex 2000s), oil, bioenergy
* Slower than population: nuclear

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
7/
For the first time we use @IEA for sectors
* 45% share, no growth: Electricity, heat, energy
* 23%, no growth: industry (+ cement)
* 19%, growing: domestic transport
* 3.5%, growing: international transport
* 10%, no growth: others

#CarbonBudget #COP25 rdcu.be/bYf1O
8/
What drives growth in global fossil CO₂ emissions?
* Population & economic growth pushing emissions up
* More effective use of energy & restructuring pushing emissions down
* Decarbonisation only showing small gains recently

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
9/
Land-use change (deforestation less afforestation) had an increase of 0.8GtCO₂ in 2019, with large uncertainty, estimated by fires in deforestation areas.

Slight upwards trend in the last decade, noting the high uncertainties.

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
10/
Fossil CO₂ emissions dominated over land-use change, land-use change 14% of total emissions from 2009-2018

Total global emissions:
* 42.1 ± 2.8 GtCO₂ in 2018
* 43.1 ± 2.8 GtCO₂ in 2019 (not shown), 57% over 1990

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
11/
Of the CO₂ we put in the atmosphere
* 86% from fossil sources
* 14% from land-use change

But, only 44% stays in the atmosphere!
* 29% taken up by the land
* 23% taken up by the ocean
* 4% we are unsure!

(% for 2009-2018)

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
12/
The airborne fraction, the share of the total emissions remaining in the atmosphere, has remained remarkably stable over the last 50 years at ~45%

No sign of bad feedbacks or tipping points at the global level (yet)...

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
13/
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1850, showing the relative proportion from different sources & sinks

The difference between sources & sinks is the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
14/
The global CO₂ concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 407ppm in 2018, an extra 2.2ppm in 2019 to reach an expected 410ppm.

It is this CO₂ that stays in the atmosphere that is currently cooking the planet...

#CarbonBudget #COP25 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
15/
Grab all the data & figures from the tweets via the amazing @Robbie_Andrew (folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…) or the full budget material from @gcarbonbudget globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
* Papers
* Slides
* Figures
* Data
* Summaries
#CarbonBudget #COP25

16/
Another monumental effort by the team, this year led by @PFriedling.

Thank you all...

doi.org/10.5194/essd-1…
#CarbonBudget #COP25
17/17
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
The latest generation of climate models are somewhat warmer...
* RCP2.6 was ~1.7°C in 2100 (66% below 2°C), but SSP1-2.6 is ~2.1°C.
* RCP8.5 was ~4.6°C in 2100, but SSP5-8.5 is up to 5.5°C
* The middle scenarios are ~0.5°C warming in 2100

1/
#COP25 carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next…
The new scenario SSP1-1.9 was supposed to be below 1.5°C in 2100, but it is so far 1.6°C in 2100...

Only partial results in , but worth noting frequency of models
* SSP2-4.5: 14 models
* SSP5-8.5: 13 models
* SSP1-2.6: 12 models
(see numbers at bottom in brackets)

2/
The new generation of models give equally good fit to observations as CMIP5, but they are warmer as we go into the future...

It will be interesting to see a decomposition of results, in due course, to see why some models are warmer than earlier versions...

3/
Read 7 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Climate change is so hard to solve because the temperature change effects of CO₂ emissions are cumulative.

Temperatures will keep rising until CO₂ emissions reach zero (small circles in the figure).

This also means that 1.5°C warming is practically unavoidable.

1/
The cumulative effects of CO₂ are well known, in fact, it turns out that CO₂ induced warming is proportional to cumulative CO₂ emissions.


Non-CO₂ emissions play an important role, but the temperature response is not cumulative.

2/
Because CO₂ emissions will not go to zero overnight, we are committed to more warming. We may also get additional warming on top from aerosol removal.

The CO₂ induced warming does not abate unless CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere. Increased climate impacts unavoidable.

3/
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
@GreenRupertRead @Joffan7 Yes, I saw that, but that Conversation article does not trump the scientific articles on this issue. Again, let me point to these papers again, that show the effects. These were the first studies, many more exist.
@GreenRupertRead @Joffan7 Yes, the climate has lags in it. I am not disputing that. When CO2 emissions go to zero, CO2 concentrations go down, but temperature does not go down because of those lags. Teh temperature actually stays constant. The lags in different parts of the system balance.
@GreenRupertRead @Joffan7 By, "about the same", I am talking about temperature changing from 2C to maybe going up to 2.1 or down to 1.9, but staying around 2C (after zero emissions). Not going to 2.5C or down to 1.5C, for example.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Fatih Birol
@IEABirol
THREAD

Today we launched World Energy Outlook 2019 #WEO19, our flagship report.

Here are my key takeaways from this exceptional piece of work that provides wide-ranging insights into how today's decisions will shape our energy future.

→ iea.li/2CC8DdJ

1/
It's important to note that #WEO19 does not provide a forecast of what will happen.

It provides a set of scenarios that explore different possible futures, the actions or inactions that bring them about, and the interconnections between different parts of the system.

2/
Deep disparities define the energy world, notably the gaps between:

• The calm in oil markets & growing geopolitical tensions
• The urgency to tackle climate change & rising emissions
• The promise of energy for all & 850m people lacking electricity

3/
Read 14 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Did u know that while China GDP was 13.1trn & the US is 20.4trn, China imported almost as much as the US & more than the Euro zone in 2018? This is why the decline of Chinese demand is consequential. Imports in 2018:

🇺🇸 2.6
🇨🇳 2.1
🇪🇺 2

Look at China's 2015 dip. 2019'll dip too!
Why did I put this up? We know that 2019 imports by China have DECLINED ytd. Data out on 8 September for August & likely to be DOWN. This is why Chinese consumers pack a punch -> they buy a lot more than the US & Euro zone as a share of GDP (export a lot too).

What do they buy?
So based on what we know so far the dip of Chinese demand will look this this for 2019 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻. OK, so what are they going to reduce in buying?

We know in 2018 58% was manufactured goods & 42% commodities (think oil, soybeans, food etc). What do u think is reduced this yr & next?
Read 19 tweets
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread: #US says #China is blocking $2.5 trillion in #SouthChinaSea oil and gas qz.com/1694322/south-…
Tensions surrounding the South China Sea have always been largely about oil & natural gas. But it’s often been argued that the strategic shipping lanes carrying Middle East oil to East Asia are what really matter, whereas the sea’s own energy resources are relatively unproven.
That argument has become a bit less tenable. This week, the US State Department used blunt language regarding China’s unsettling actions within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which include ongoing seismic surveys by a Chinese vessel protected by armed escorts.
Read 11 tweets
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Face reality, take action.🕊️
@ClimateBen
By 2026, most of humanity will:

1. live with severe water stress
2. fear unprecedented heatwaves
3. be at risk from deadly diseases
4. be affected by extreme weather
5. suffer hunger/famine/starvation
6. consider relocating due to climate

No, this couldn't be true.

Could it?
Average global temperature will have risen considerably in 7 years time - we're set to hit catastrophic 1.5C by 2026:

'The analysis assumes that little or no action is taken to reduce emissions'.

⚠️ There is no sign of even moderate action happening soon.newscientist.com/article/213073…
By 2025, half of the world’s population will be living in water-stressed areas:
who.int/news-room/fact…

Already today 50% of people suffer severe water *scarcity*. How will this improve?

Billions will live with *high* water stress:
Read 27 tweets
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Antonia Juhasz
@AntoniaJuhasz
President Trump upended decades of U.S. policy that started with Richard Nixon when he declared that the goal of the U.S. was no longer “energy independence” but rather “American energy dominance.” This wasn’t Trumpian hyperbole. latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/…
/2 Few policies have been pursued by the administration with more cohesiveness, zeal, and success — or with more potential to yield great and lasting harm. Trump has unleashed a massive, untethered expansion of oil, natural gas and coal production.
/3 Trump's "American Energy Dominance" policy seeks to make the U.S. the world’s foremost fossil fuel powerhouse. Its origins are in the radical writings of 2 Trump campaign advisers who call fossil fuels "The Master Resource,"as I wrote in @RollingStone rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Read 12 tweets
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Andreas Graf
@andreasgraf
THREAD: SECTORAL DEEP DIVE - TRANSPORT IN 2030

1/ Recently I highlighted key 2030 energy modelling results in the @EU_Commission's new EU 'Long Term Strategy' and did deep dives on Buildings & Industry. Today I take a closer look at the Transport Sector.
2/ Transport represents around a third of the final energy consumption in the EU. All sectors have seen emissions reductions since 1990, with the exception of transport, which has increased by nearly +25%. The currently dominant transport technologies rely on oil based fuels.
3/ Decarbonizing the transport sector will require an integrated approach: 1) increasing vehicle efficiency, 2) promoting low- and zero emission vehicles and infrastructure, 3) fuel switch to alternative and net-zero carbon fuels for transport and 4) electrification of transport.
Read 26 tweets

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