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My 15 small and mid sized pharma for 15Y

⚠️~5 can go bust (0)

No trading. No questions. Your money. Your conviction. Your due diligence!

Albert David
DCAL
FDC
Indoco
JB Pharma
Jubilant Life
Laurus
Natco
Neuland
RPG Life
SeQuent
SMS Pharma
Solara
Strides
Syngene

| Pharma 💉💊
Quite a few DMs around the warning " ⚠️~5 can go bust (0) "

If you want to be super safe - just avoid those names with the toxic combo of Debt + Pledge

Eris Life was not mentioned above, and may well be considered. I obviously hold from Sep'19.

| Small Pharma Long-term Lock
Overwhelmed by the number of comments - shall broadly elaborate my thoughts on each business listed above

What/why like?
Entry, average price & holding period?

Everything's just an opinion. Reserve the right to be wrong.

Blindly cloning someone is the worst possible strategy!
Albert David - a baby-cap caught my attention few years ago.

Excellent balance sheet

High promoter stake with no pledge

Consistent +ve operating cash flows

I had tweeted this few days after initiated a buy around 290/- 👇



| Albert David 1/n
Early 2018, Albert had a professional CEO in Tony Parmar.

Tony's past experience included - Zydus Cadila, Jubilant Life, Eli Lilly etc.

RPG Life had hired a new CEO in Jan'15, so hoping (!!) that Albert could run away like RPG (5X in 18 months) - added some more.

2/n
| Price changes perception 🤫

Last year, Albert had a vertical take-off from under 400 to over 800 within a few days!

As this exceptional move wasn't supported by ANY material fundamental change - I was very comfortable being risk-off in Albert 👇



3/n
This quote from Kenneth Andrade fits Albert David rather well.



Bought some near 340 this year. Average price is below 0 as sold above 800 last year. Milking dividends at 0 cost 😊

If/when the new CEO and team start to deliver - can always add more.

4/4
#DCAL been a very lucky stock for me over 2013-2016 period. Exited in SIP mode between 2016-2018 and had 0 holding until last month, when I re-entered around 120 assuming that Corp. Gov. issues are priced in. I had hoped would double in 3-5Y as goodwill issues will amortise

1/n
Point 2 point, #DCAL hasn't given much in last 15Y 👇



IT raids 🚩 - suspected fraud, mis-governance smog - there was no option but to book a small loss and exit this



Game over as far as I am concerned!

#Dishman | DCAL 🚩

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UnseenValue
@unseenvalue
No page 3 investor has printed invitation cards – “please clone my stock idea at any price”. It’s the stupid " wanna get rich quick " speculator that lives under a solid hallucination that they are the best investors on the planet. They need to get rid of this mental illness. [1]
Investors @LuckyInvest_AK , Dolly Khanna, RJ, Ramesh Damani, @shyamsek, @hiddengemsindia, RK Damani to name a few – also do a lot of charity.

They don’t want you to clone their trades. It’s the media / blogs / websites that create that perception and hype.

Avoid cloning 🚩

[2]
@LuckyInvest_AK @shyamsek @hiddengemsindia I am also a retail investor and I get the same news flow.

What do I do❓I use that news flow to my advantage❗️

I never ask for stock tips. I don’t clone stock ideas.

✅ I do clone good thinking / analysis / process / learning.

Independent and contrarian thinking helps.

[3]
Read 5 tweets
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UnseenValue
@unseenvalue
Like bamboo cultivation, the results of strategy & capital allocation are intertwined and outcome may not be known for few years. This is particularly true for biologics, life sciences innovator companies.

Having said that - few basics for good & bad capital allocation are:
{1}
Bad capital allocator:

👉 Extrapolating good times or peak economic cycle to continue longer-than-average

👉 Ambitious debt-funded Capex at peak cycle

👉 Incremental ROCE lower than existing ROCE

👉 Unrelated diversification having no connection with existing business

{2}
In certain FMCGs - outright disruption's unlikely but substitutes & competitive intensity in on the rise!

Think in terms of ROCE trend line...is ~70% ROCE going to stay around the 60-80% range over the next decade or will we likely see a ~30% ROCE in 2030 (that's big drop!)

{3}
Read 6 tweets
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UnseenValue
@unseenvalue
On this auspicious day of #GuruPurnima, happy to share an easy to read and an exceptionally worthwhile investment. I plan to make a thread that will hopefully help us invest and live better. Thank you @awealthofcs 🙏🏻
Experience has taught me that less is always more when making investment decisions. Simplicity trumps complexity. Conventional gives you much better odds than exotic. A long-term process is more important than short-term outcomes.
And perspective goes much further than tactics. Tactics are useless to investors in a matter of days—sometimes in a matter of hours. But perspective is something that stays with the investor for a lifetime. It allows you to adapt to the changing market and economic landscape.
Read 14 tweets

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Barnaby Pace
@pace_nik
1/ The Shell & Eni trial in Milan this morning is hearing testimony from Keith Ruddock, former General Counsel for Shell's Upstream business. He will be the most senior executive yet to testify in the ongoing corruption trial. Live tweeting to the thread below.
2/ Side gripe - Shell has taken to laying out placecards for their numerous staff in the public/ press area of the overcrowded courtroom. They were unwilling to move them so our 9 month pregnant colleague from the press can have a seat. Not the first time this has happened.
3/ Ruddock takes the stand. He's been called as a defence witness by Shell who will start the questioning. Ruddock spent 20 years at Shell from 1992 to 2012, when he left for another company. He's since retired but is a trustee and has a role at the University of Strathclyde.
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Elizabeth Hansen
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Here's my take: There is/was no commercial business model that could have saved most news publishers. This is not a case of product commodification, it's a case of total de-commercialization of news as an industry. Cc @skok @emilybell @niccomele 1/8
Internet platform economics were going to swamp the majority of publishers no matter what -- there is (almost) no market for their products any more; not because they couldn’t make one, but because that’s not how internet economics work (see @benthompson @stratechery). 2/8
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Vishvesh
@iamVishChauhan
In last one week I have got n number of request
1. learning Options
2. learning TA
3. learning Python
4. Tips providing
5. please how can I get your service
6. Manage my money
And worst if them all
7. I have lost lots of money please help me recover.
The problem here, knowledge is widely Available, google it and you will have everything available. But most people want to still know best book, best method, best way to not lose money. I am sharing my thoughts to suggest that, it takes lot of time to become consistent profitable
All these people are fine individuals and very excited about prospect to learn from someone else's mistake. But there are people who might be looking for short cuts. Trust me just one good (any book) on any method is the first step to start learning in that direction
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #China will cut export rebate rates to 13% and 9%, respectively, for exports that enjoyed 16% and 10% rebate rates in accordance with value-added tax cuts effective April 1, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/2Tr5h3o
🇨🇳 #China is extending a public holiday to get people to travel and spend more as the government pins its hopes on a vast consumer base to help cushion an economic slowdown - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
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Sergey Galyonkin
@galyonkin
There is a thread on ResetEra where people are getting angry because of an incorrect summary of a Russian-language podcast.

Because most of Internet doesn’t speak Russian, I guess I need to address it here, instead of hoping people will actually listen to the podcast. [Thread]
I believe influencers are one of the main game discovery engines in the industry right now. Friends are the most important one, of course. In-store discovery while important is nowhere as important as those two.
Right now a significant part of marketing budgets of big games is allocated to pay influencers. Those are one-off deals. I think having a way for influencers to be able to stream any game and make money without relying solely on big publishers would be awesome.
Read 23 tweets
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Many A True Nerd
@ManyATrueNerd
Y'know what, this is a fun topic, and I used to work in marketing myself, so let's talk about this.

Yes, there are marketing budgets, and spending money to guarantee a long-form video that will be a seen by a good audience for your game is a great investment.

BUT
Marketing teams generally won't spend money unless they have to. There's a finite budget, and it has to be demonstrated that it's being spent correctly; specifically in such a way as will maximise the return.

That means you'd NEVER spend money on what you could get for free.
A pre-roll ad on YouTube can never be got for free. You have to pay for it, or you don't have it. Display ads, search ads, most marketing costs money.

But not YouTubers. The vast majority of us work for free. Send us review code, and if the game's good, free video.
Read 12 tweets

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