Here's a sneak peak of how we're going to be evaluating fundraising strength in our primary model.
Since it's unclear which of these is most predictive, we take an average of 3 different metrics:
* % of small donor $
* % of all individual $
* % of all $ including self-funding
Since it's unclear which of these is most predictive, we take an average of 3 different metrics:
* % of small donor $
* % of all individual $
* % of all $ including self-funding
More recent contributions will be weighted more heavily, so if you want to help your favorite candidate in the 538 model donate now, LOL.
More seriously, in contrast to earlier research, we do find fundraising has some predictive power in the primaries. About as much as endorsements, probably. This may reflect a change in the landscape. One of the things that's made me a bit more optimistic about Bernie's chances.
