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OUR PRIMARY MODEL IS LIVE! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
PLEDGED DELEGATE MAJORITY CHANCES:
Biden 42%
Sanders 22%
NO MAJORTY 13%
Warren 12%
Buttigieg 9%
Pledged delegate PLURALITY chances:
Biden 47%
Sanders 24%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 11%
field 4%
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What are the chances of a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn*?

* More accurately described as a "contested convention".

fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes.

That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though.

Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^
However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance:

—Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren
—Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16
—Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We now have LOTS of polls since the debate. Here's my analysis of what's going on*.

* Spoiler alert: It's unclear.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
National polls since the debate, although with a fair amount of variation, have mostly been good for Bernie.

State polls since the debate, although also with a fair amount of variation, have mostly been mediocre for Bernie.
All of these hypotheses are plausible and there's not really any way to differentiate them until we get more polling. Fortunately, more polling is likely coming soon.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'd certainly rather be in Bernie's position than Warren's, but the best argument for Warren is that she's basically tied with Sanders in Iowa and would likely get a larger bounce because expectations for her performance there are lower and a win would be seen as more surprising.
p.s. This phrasing sounds a bit casual ^^^, but empirically the best predictor of a bounce (and what our model uses to forecast bounces) is how a candidate finishes in a state relative to his or her national polls.
If you do take more subjective notions of "expectations" into account though: Bernie currently has a 44% chance of winning Iowa and Warren a 12% chance in prediction markets, which doesn't really square with the polling there showing the top 4 closely bunched together.
Read 3 tweets

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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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FLIP NATION
@FlipNationUSA
#CandidateTweets on #Healthcare
The 20 major dems Bennet to Yang
#Bennet
#Biden
Read 24 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets
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Topless Topics
@ToplessTopics
#warren/#buttigieg 2020. Tell me why I'm wrong.
I was really hoping to elect a person of color, and I still have some interest in Harris. But she's getting too much heat for her prosecutor background. Besides Warren has the most policies that align with my view of America, AND she knows how to make those goals achievable!
And Buttigieg... I'm still learning about his ability to govern, but I'm continually impressed by how worldly and hella SMART he is. and he's obviously had some inside experience of oppression as a gay man from middle America.
Read 12 tweets

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