@mattwridley It wasn’t a report, Matt, it was one scenario among several looking at how “abrupt” climate change could play out under worst circumstances, and it wasn’t secret. The client was the Pentagon. We did the work at Global Business Network. I was involved in some of the interviews.
@mattwridley This was during the Bush administration, which was in full denial of any climate change. The Pentagon encouraged making the scenario public to help broaden the administration’s mind on the subject. Which it did.
@mattwridley The “abrupt” scenario we went with was a shutdown of the Gulf Stream due to too much fresh water in the north Atlantic, thereby rapidly cooling Europe to be like the Falklands.
It happened once before with a sudden influx of fresh water from North America.
It happened once before with a sudden influx of fresh water from North America.
@mattwridley A grotesquely exaggerated movie called “The Day After Tomorrow” was made, based on the idea.
The worry remains real though:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_…
The worry remains real though:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_…
@mattwridley Back then, you couldn’t get any politicians interested in climate because it was considered someone else’s problem--”not on my watch.”
An abrupt scenario made it potentially “on my watch.”
Therefore do the damn science and make some policy that might help.
An abrupt scenario made it potentially “on my watch.”
Therefore do the damn science and make some policy that might help.
@mattwridley Further research after our early work suggested that the scenario could not play out, but the prospect of possible “abruptness” was important to always keep an eye on.
Thus all the discussion these days of possible self-accelerating “tipping points.”
Thus all the discussion these days of possible self-accelerating “tipping points.”
@mattwridley Personally I don’t expect an abrupt climate event, though I keep a worried eye on permafrost melting, which I’ve seen, and ice sheet volatility on Antarctica and Greenland.
My expectation is a long, long grind of slowly increasing heat and sea-level rise. Certainly decades...
My expectation is a long, long grind of slowly increasing heat and sea-level rise. Certainly decades...
@mattwridley The original document prepared in 2003 for the Pentagon (hmm, I see it WAS a report--in scenario form.)
apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fullte…
apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fullte…
