Over the holidays I rode around Portland on a borrowed e-bike while writing up this story for the Atlantic's @RouteFifty. One conclusion: the impact on the short-trip end of the transport spectrum could, in these early days, be comparable to EV. routefifty.com/infrastructure…
2/ If you've not yet ridden an e-bike the effects are simple enough to describe: imagine a quiet motor kicking in every time your cadence slows. You are still very much riding a bike, still pedaling. Over at @iamspecialized they say "it's you, only faster" and that sums it up.
3/Sales of e-bikes, by one estimate are on pace to rise 50% in the US this year, coming from a low base. In Europe, however, there is a more startling metric: 2018 e-bike sales were 10X EV sales. I mean, that is a full-on viking raid into the short-trips typically taken by cars.
4/ This market-share assault at the short-end of travel comes at a time when the legacy auto industry, of course, faces rolling disruption at the long-end from EV. Much of Germany's industrial base is built around a century of expertise in building ICE: nytimes.com/2019/12/31/bus…
5/ On the level of design, e-bike batteries are getting smaller, are hiding more cleverly in the downtube, and e-bikes are falling in weight. I'm a strong rider (for my age) and have *tried* to ride at least 4000km per year for 20 years. I'm now certain I'll own an e-bike...
6/...eventually, one with a far smaller, more optimized battery. The upright models typical today are just right to entice the large part of the public not yet on a bike. But fellow cyclists: there are already drop-bar, gravel-bike models that are lighter than my steel All City!
7/ Some years ago I interviewed a strategic planner at @metrolosangeles and they have long been thinking about how to amplify the impact of each light-rail station. It's now obvious that e-bikes are going to doubly act as that network link. What's needed are routes, and parking.
@metrolosangeles 8/ So cities can reap high ROI by investing in protected lanes, and, especially end-of-trip parking. Portland planners, for example, are well aware there's a big prize to be won: the 65% of the public still not on a bike. The right design nudges (Thaler) gets them into the pool.
9/ Frankly, I was motivated to probe the e-bike story when I suddenly became aware that, so far, I'd missed it. Zap, lightning strike. Folks doing the real analytical work here are @asymco and @oliverbruce and you should follow them and @MicromobilityCo
@asymco @oliverbruce @MicromobilityCo 10/ Indeed, when I add the update several months from now to my little ebook, Oil Fall, it's clear the impact of all electrics, not just EV, will need to be incorporated. The great blunting of oil demand growth continues. /fin.
