1/ Let's talk about travel demand and how states use it to justify highway expansion projects. The Lincoln Nebraska South Beltway is a great example of the hype and bust of traffic forecasting and why dumping unrestricted cash on states is a bad idea. 
2/ Two arterial roads emanate from Lincoln: US 77 & SR 2. In 2000, NDOT’s estimated that under the no build scenario, US 77 would have avg. daily traffic (ADT) of 28,100. NDOT’s traffic count for 2018 shows *actual* demand of just 12,242 — a difference of *15,858 or 56 percent.*
3/ Interestingly, NDOT missed wildly in the other direction as well. For SR 2, NDOT predicted ADT of 6,900 under the no build scenario. Actual ADT in 2018 for SR 2 was 12,266 — a difference of 5,366 or 77 percent.
4/ The South Beltway offers two lesson: first, travel demand models are generally worthless. States build what they want to build. Projecting big traffic numbers is the easiest way to justify spending even if you really don’t have any idea what the future holds.
5/ Second, the future is not fixed. NDOT’s 2017 TIGER application notes that: “The highest rate of population growth is expected to occur along the periphery of the City.” It certainly will if you keep building big new highways there.
6/ The Journal Star reports that NDOT’s RFP came in $52 million over their expected budget (and before cost overruns). To put that in perspective, the Lincoln MPO anticipates revenues for its bike/ped/trails program to be $36 million *in total* over the next TWENTY THREE YEARS.
7/ If the state is going to spend at least $352 million on the South Beltway, then they are going to get a big bang for the buck right? Wrong. NDOT estimates that building the project will reduce daily vehicle hours of travel (VHT) within the region by 0.07%. Read that again.
8/ The Lincoln MPO fully supports the South Beltway and has programmed money for construction. At the same time, the regional long-range plan lays out traditional smart growth land use goals. This is the definition of cognitive dissonance. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
9/ Nonetheless, Lincoln is undeterred: “With the South Beltway funded and planned for construction in the near future, it is important to plan for bicycle connectivity across the Beltway.” The maps shows existing, planned, and aspirational routes. Points for trying, I guess.
