Thread by @benjaminwittes

A few hours ago, @qjurecic and I wrote a piece about the game theory of the standoff over the impeachment articles.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Quickly on its heels, Mitch McConnell has announced that he has the votes to pass his preferred trial framework—without negotiating further with Democrats.

This is very clearly the scenario we had in mind when we wrote the following:

But in the context of John Bolton's announcement yesterday that he's willing to testify if subpoenaed by the Senate, McConnell's announcement of his posture creates a strategic opening for Pelosi that she will not fail to notice.

A subpoena from the Senate is not, after all, legally different from a subpoena from the House. With McConnell now publicly committed to moving forward without hearing from a witness who is willing to testify, Pelosi's control over the articles becomes highly significant.

Here is a card she now has in her hand. She can announce that:
(1) She is not willing to hand over the articles so that McConnell can bury them without hearing from a witness who has suddenly made clear that he is, after all, available.

(2) Since the Senate majority leader appears committed to a trial framework that will not hear all the available witnesses with relevant information, the House Intelligence Committee will issue the subpoena Bolton has invited instead.

(3) She will hold the articles pending the completion of that testimony—and whatever litigation may be necessary to obtain it.

And critically, (4) the House reserves the right to pass superseding or amended articles of impeachment in response to new information it obtains.

This would put McConnell in the position of paying a significant price for not reaching an accommodation—and put pressure on him to do so. The articles of impeachment will dangle over the president and the Senate for some period of time to come if Bolton resists the subpoena.

Bolton may well end up testifying, either in the House or the Senate. And McConnell will be unable to play his 51-vote trump card until Bolton does so, because the articles will not be in his hand, and his power only kicks in when Pelosi sends them over.

What's more, such a position would be wholly defensible.

After all, as McConnell knows full well, there is no right and wrong here. There are only tactics and what works.