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We did some general election polling in Arizona and Iowa and found that the only thing keeping Trump from being in terrible shape is disunity among the voters who don't like him: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
In AZ Trump is tied with Biden, up 1 on Sanders, 2 on Warren, and 3 on Buttigieg. Not great numbers in a state he won by 4. But when you look at undecideds in each match more than 80% disapprove of Trump, and they voted for Clinton by at least 45 points: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If undecideds in AZ voted based on their Trump approval or disapproval Biden and Warren would be up by 6, Sanders and Buttigieg by 4.

If they voted based on 2016 vote, Biden would be up by 4 and the rest would be up by 2:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump has a 46/52 approval rating in Arizona and is stuck at 46-47% in all head to heads. The only thing keeping him slightly ahead now is the general dynamic of for instance people saying they will vote for Biden but not Bernie or Bernie but not Biden:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Similar story in IA. Trump is up 1 on Buttigieg, 3 on Biden, 5 on Sanders/Warren. Not great numbers in state that he won by 9 in 2016. When you look at undecideds, only 3-7% in each match approve of Trump and they voted for Clinton by an average of 31 pts: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If undecideds voted based on Trump approval/disapproval, Buttigieg would be up by 2 and the other Dems would be tied with Trump. If they voted based on 2016 vote, Buttigieg would be tied, Biden and Sanders would only be down by 2, Warren would be down 4: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump does not have enough voters who *like him* to get reelected. The only way he wins is if people who oppose him refuse to get on the same page after the primary.

If anti-Trump voters unify around his eventual opponent, he will lose. If they don't, it's going to be close
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More from @ppppolls see all

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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Our new poll in North Carolina- a state Trump won by 4 points- finds that there are more voters who want to impeach him (48%) than there are who approve of him (46%):

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Trump has a 46/51 approval spread in NC.

Voters are evenly divided on impeachment, 48/48.

Only 7% of voters who disapprove of Trump are opposed to impeachment. Disapproval and support for impeachment are coming closer and closer to one and the same:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Trump trails Biden 51-46, Warren 49-46, and Sanders 50-47 in NC. Ties Harris at 47%, leads Buttigieg 47-46.

Electability differences are overblown. Trump gets 46-47% no matter who Dem is. Dems get different levels of support depending on level of fame:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Read 10 tweets
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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
The Midwest gets most of the attention but there's a real path to Democratic victory in the South next year too. We find Donald Trump trails a generic Democrat 50-46 in Georgia and 49-44 in North Carolina. Last month we found him down 51-44 in Florida:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…
Trump's under water on his approval in North Carolina (46/48), Georgia (45/49), and Florida (45/50), all states he won in 2016: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…
There's a huge generational divide moving Georgia closer to swing state status. Trump trails a generic Dem 64-24 among voters under 30, 59-33 among voters under 45, and 52-43 among voters under 65. Older voters only thing keeping state red: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…
Read 8 tweets
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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Our new national poll finds:

-Barr letter didn't change anyone's mind about Trump and Russia.

-Voters care a lot more about health care and the GOP tax plan anyway.

-Republicans are in bad shape on both those issues.

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/opinions…
49% of voters think Trump committed obstruction of justice, 40% don't think he did.

When we asked about that in June 2017, 49% thought Trump committed obstruction of justice, 41% thought he didn't:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/opinions…
44% of voters think Trump's team colluded with Russia, 43% don't think it did.

In January when we asked the same question, 45% of voters thought there was collusion and 43% didn't:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/opinions…
Read 23 tweets

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Karol Cummins
@karolcummins
💣B O O M💣

The same prosecutor Trump & Giuliani pressured Zelensky to hire (Lutsenko) to go after Biden’s son engineered Konstin Klimnik’s escape to RU to avoid Mueller’s charges.

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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Well done, #IOWA
Here are your #PrimaryElection Winners
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VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Hey #Iowa! You get to vote in Primary Election on JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 25: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
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Voter Registration by May 25
Form: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
Mail or Deliver to County Auditor. Addresses here: sos.iowa.gov/elections/audi…
Or Iowa DMV office. Addresses here: dmv.org/ia-iowa/dmv-of…
Register Online through DMV here: mymvd.iowadot.gov/Account/Login?…
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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
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bit.ly/2CpL7z2
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