We did some general election polling in Arizona and Iowa and found that the only thing keeping Trump from being in terrible shape is disunity among the voters who don't like him: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
In AZ Trump is tied with Biden, up 1 on Sanders, 2 on Warren, and 3 on Buttigieg. Not great numbers in a state he won by 4. But when you look at undecideds in each match more than 80% disapprove of Trump, and they voted for Clinton by at least 45 points: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If undecideds in AZ voted based on their Trump approval or disapproval Biden and Warren would be up by 6, Sanders and Buttigieg by 4.
If they voted based on 2016 vote, Biden would be up by 4 and the rest would be up by 2:
publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If they voted based on 2016 vote, Biden would be up by 4 and the rest would be up by 2:
publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump has a 46/52 approval rating in Arizona and is stuck at 46-47% in all head to heads. The only thing keeping him slightly ahead now is the general dynamic of for instance people saying they will vote for Biden but not Bernie or Bernie but not Biden:
publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Similar story in IA. Trump is up 1 on Buttigieg, 3 on Biden, 5 on Sanders/Warren. Not great numbers in state that he won by 9 in 2016. When you look at undecideds, only 3-7% in each match approve of Trump and they voted for Clinton by an average of 31 pts: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If undecideds voted based on Trump approval/disapproval, Buttigieg would be up by 2 and the other Dems would be tied with Trump. If they voted based on 2016 vote, Buttigieg would be tied, Biden and Sanders would only be down by 2, Warren would be down 4: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump does not have enough voters who *like him* to get reelected. The only way he wins is if people who oppose him refuse to get on the same page after the primary.
If anti-Trump voters unify around his eventual opponent, he will lose. If they don't, it's going to be close
If anti-Trump voters unify around his eventual opponent, he will lose. If they don't, it's going to be close
