Thread by @ppppolls

The Midwest gets most of the attention but there's a real path to Democratic victory in the South next year too. We find Donald Trump trails a generic Democrat 50-46 in Georgia and 49-44 in North Carolina. Last month we found him down 51-44 in Florida:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

Trump's under water on his approval in North Carolina (46/48), Georgia (45/49), and Florida (45/50), all states he won in 2016: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

There's a huge generational divide moving Georgia closer to swing state status. Trump trails a generic Dem 64-24 among voters under 30, 59-33 among voters under 45, and 52-43 among voters under 65. Older voters only thing keeping state red: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

Diversifying electorate in Georgia also a huge factor in making it more competitive. Trump has a 69-27 advantage with white voters...but is down 84-12 with nonwhite voters, who are growing in their share of the electorate: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

In 2008 Georgia voted 12 points more Republican for President than the country as a whole. In 2016 that gap was down to 7 points, and of course the Governor's race last year was decided by a point: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

North Carolina was the second closest state in the country for President in both 2008 (behind Missouri) and in 2012 (behind Florida) and Democrats swept the statewide races there in 2018: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

Even though Florida's premier election went to the GOP 4 of the last 5 cycles, worth remembering it was by just 1 point each time and it doesn't take much to turn that into a 1 point outcome in the other direction: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin certainly is the most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes for Democrats next year. But these new Southern polls and broader trends show it's not the only path: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-sout…