Thread by @JakeVigdor

Here, #econtwitter, is a photo (replete with San Diego Marriott poolside lounge chair backdrop) of the AEA budget for FY 2020. I picked it up at the sparsely attended business meeting at #ASSA2020.

Although printed in black, there's some serious red ink. Let's explore.

The AEA operating budget was in the black five years ago. This year, they expect to spend $1.23 for every $1 in operating revenue. What gives?

Revenues (+7% in nominal terms 2015-2020) are not keeping up with expenses (+35.5%).

You know how the AEA is actually doing important stuff, like the RCT registry, @LetoC's ombuds office, workshops, and so forth?

"Program and activity" expenses are up 85% over five years. The association is dipping into its bank account to pay for them.

@LetoC Doubling journal submission fees and raising dues by $2 (the upper bound permitted in the bylaws) will bring in about $500k. But there's still a $2.5M deficit.

To close it, dues would have to rise by $120/member (i.e., quintuple).

@LetoC That might seem like a lot, but dues of $150/member don't really look out of line compared with other professional associations.

https://twitter.com/Patrick_J_Egan/status/1215040128915255297?s=20

@LetoC Here's another looming concern. Nearly 40% of AEA revenue comes from EconLit. That's more than dues, submission fees, and conference registration combined.

EconLit is advertised to libraries as an "authoritative" literature database. But can it compete with @Google Scholar?

@LetoC @Google EconLit revenue growth is projected to stall. If Google Scholar drives it out of business, plugging the hole in the AEA budget would require an ADDITIONAL $210/member. Above the $150/member to cover the current operating deficit.

@LetoC @Google Now consider the fact that many of us want the AEA to do MORE.

Expand legal support to pursue conduct investigations!

Fund outreach programs in high schools!

Subsidize data access!

Reverse the policy of $100 desk rejections!

How are we going to pay for all that?

@LetoC @Google Here's one more thought that occurred to me as I perused the budget.

Top departments -- where the editors work, where the faculty & students almost certainly cash more referee checks per capita -- get more money from the AEA than they contribute.

Everybody else...